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If the Collatz conjecture is strongly false, in the sense that there is an infinite orbit, let $S_n$ be the set of natural numbers $\le n$ whose orbit goes to infinity.

If $c=\liminf _{n\rightarrow\infty} |S_n|/\log_2(n)$ it's easy to see that $c=\infty$.

Could one prove some stronger results, such as, for example: $\liminf_{n\rightarrow\infty} \log(|S_n|)/\log\log(n)>1$?

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    $\begingroup$ How do you get $c=\infty$? It could be that all orbits settle into a cycle rather than blowing up to infinity. Anyway, Wikipedia mentions the bound that $\gg n^{0.84}$ elements below $n$ will reach $1$, and brief search suggests this is still state of the art. $\endgroup$
    – Wojowu
    Commented Mar 11 at 11:47
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    $\begingroup$ @Wojowu You are right. I edited the question to reflect what I really had in mind: to assume there is an infinite orbit. I don't know if the term "stronlgy" that I used is the appropriate one though. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 11 at 12:14

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Krasikov and Lagarias prove the following result (Theorem 6.1):

For any $a\neq 0\pmod 3$, and for all sufficiently large $x$ (depending on $a$), there are at least $x^{0.84}$ integers below $x$ such that iteration of Collatz map will at some point reach $a$.

If $a$ is a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture, then so is any number which eventually reaches $a$, and they are counterexamples of the same type - trajectory tends to infinity if that of $a$ does, and else it falls into the same loop as $a$. Thus if we assume that there is at least one number whose trajectory tends to infinity, we get $\liminf \log|S_n|/\log n\geq 0.84$, much stronger than what you've asked.

If we merely assume Collatz conjecture is false, this is not enough to prove $S_n$ is nonempty, but if you expand $S_n$ to include numbers falling into nontrivial loops, we get the same bound. Though those papers don't treat your exact question, I suspect this is still state of the art for lower bounds.

As for upper bounds, I don't think we can give anything better than $|S_n|\leq n-n^{0.84}$ which also follows from that theorem.

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    $\begingroup$ This is indeed far stronger than anything I would have expected! Thank you. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 11 at 12:20

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