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I have a random walk $$R(t)= \sum_{n<t} X_n,$$ with $X_n \sim U(-\tfrac{1}{n^\alpha}, \tfrac{1}{n^\alpha}),$ where $X_n$ are independant and $\alpha >0$.

I think that someone must have studied this before. I am interested in understanding the behavior of $R(t)$ for large $t$.

For example can we estimate the probability of $R(t) \in [1, x)$?

Obviously, $E(R(t))=0,$ and $Var(R)= \tfrac{1}{3}\sum_{n<t} \tfrac{1}{n^{2\alpha}}.$

Therefore depends on $\alpha,$ the variance can grow with $t$. Any information regarding the behavior of $R$ is appreciated.

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  • $\begingroup$ I think a typo. $T = t$? $\endgroup$ Jan 4, 2022 at 12:52
  • $\begingroup$ corrected, thanks. $\endgroup$
    – Sia-TeX
    Jan 4, 2022 at 12:56
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    $\begingroup$ Questions of the form "What is" are almost always unclear, unless the terms in which the target object is to be expressed are specified. Without such specification, the tautological answer is always possible: "It is what it is", which is probably not an answer you want. So, you should state what specifically you want to know about $R(t)$. Note also that even the expression for the pdf of the sum of iid uniformly distributed random variables is rather complicated (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin%E2%80%93Hall_distribution). $\endgroup$ Jan 4, 2022 at 13:06
  • $\begingroup$ Ok, fair enough. Let me explian more: If $\alpha=0,$ then we have a classical case, and by CLT we approach a normal distribution, meaning that about 70% of the time I expect to end up in $(-\sqrt{t}, \sqrt{t})$. But when $\alpha >0$ this changes. In general I would like to understand the behaviour of $R(t),$ for large $t.$ For example what is the probability of ending up somewhere greater than 1, $P(R(t)>1)?$ Or what is the probablity that $-1/M<R(t)<1/M$ for some $M >1$. $\endgroup$
    – Sia-TeX
    Jan 4, 2022 at 13:21
  • $\begingroup$ "understand the behaviour of" is just about as unclear as "what is". Moreover, you have another two instances of "what is" in your comment. So, it is still unclear what you want. $\endgroup$ Jan 4, 2022 at 13:27

1 Answer 1

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Let $a:=\alpha$. Note that \begin{equation} Ee^{zX_n}=\frac{\sinh(z/n^a)}{z/n^a} \end{equation} for real $z>0$. Using the inequality $\dfrac{\sinh u}u<e^{u^2/6}$ for real $u\ne0$ (see e.g. this MathSE answer) and the independence of the $X_n$'s, we get \begin{equation} Ee^{zR(t)}\le e^{z^2 B_{a,t}/6}, \end{equation} where \begin{equation} B_{a,t}:=\sum_{n<t}\frac1{n^{2a}}. \end{equation} So, for any real $x>0$, \begin{equation} P(R(t)\ge x)\le e^{-zx+z^2 B_{a,t}/6}. \end{equation} The latter bound on $P(R(t)\ge x)$ is minimized at $z=3x/B_{a,t}$. Thus, \begin{equation} P(R(t)\ge x)\le e^{-3x^2/(2B_{a,t})}. \end{equation}

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you. This inequality is effective if $x \gg \sqrt{B_{a, t}}$. So basically we expect this process to end up between $[-\sqrt{B_{a, t}}, \sqrt{B_{a, t}}]$ most of the time. My mistake was that I erroneously thought the higher moments will be bonded. I will fix that above. $\endgroup$
    – Sia-TeX
    Jan 4, 2022 at 16:44
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    $\begingroup$ @Sia-TeX : The bound on the moment generating function kind of automatically takes care of moments of all orders, and does that in a convenient manner. $\endgroup$ Jan 4, 2022 at 16:49

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