Let $\operatorname{ord}_p(2)$ be the order of 2 in the multiplicative group modulo $p$. Let $A$ be the subset of primes $p$ where $\operatorname{ord}_p(2)$ is odd, and let $B$ be the subset of primes $p$ where $\operatorname{ord}_p(2)$ is even. Then how large is $A$ compared to $B$?

4$\begingroup$ $A/(A+B)$ tends to $7/24$ ? (not proved yet). $\endgroup$ – Henri Cohen Sep 23 '20 at 21:39

4$\begingroup$ Seems like an interesting question, and clearly generalizable quite a lot. However, if you're going to ask many questions on this site, it would be a good idea to learn a little bit of TeX formatting. I've fixed the formatting of your question, so if you click on "edit", you'll be able to see what I did to make it more readable. I also changed the title of your question to make it even clearer what you're asking. $\endgroup$ – Joe Silverman Sep 23 '20 at 21:54

3$\begingroup$ @HenriCohen how did you determine $A/(A+B)$ to be $7/24$ while also writing "not proved yet"? The proportion of $p \leq 100000$ for which $2 \bmod p$ has odd order is $2797/9591$, which as a continued fraction is $[0,3,2,3,44,9]$, and the truncated continued fraction $[0,3,2,3]$ is $7/24$. I'd be interested to know if you did that or something else. $\endgroup$ – KConrad Sep 24 '20 at 3:26

$\begingroup$ Note: the set $A$ is at OEIS: oeis.org/A014663, while its complement $B$ is oeis.org/A091317. Among the 46 primes below 200, $A$ consists of the 14 primes 7, 23, 31, 47, 71, 73, 79, 89, 103, 127, 151, 167, 191, 199. $\endgroup$ – YCor Sep 24 '20 at 9:44

$\begingroup$ see this answer $\endgroup$ – René Gy Sep 24 '20 at 15:39
This problem was asked by Sierpinski in 1958 and answered by Hasse in the 1960s.
For each nonzero rational number $a$ (take $a \in \mathbf Z$ if you wish) and each prime $\ell$, let $S_{a,\ell}$ be the set of primes $p$ not dividing the numerator or denominator of $a$ such that $a \bmod p$ has multiplicative order divisible by $\ell$. When $a = \pm 1$, $S_{a,\ell}$ is empty except that $S_{1,2}$ is all odd primes. From now on, suppose $a \not= \pm 1$.
In Math. Ann. 162 (1965/66), 74–76 (the paper is at https://eudml.org/doc/161322 and on MathSciNet see MR0186653) Hasse treated the case $\ell \not= 2$. Let $e$ be the largest nonnegative integer such that $a$ in $\mathbf Q$ is an $\ell^e$th power. (For example, if $a$ is squarefree then $e = 0$ for every $\ell$ not dividing $a$.) The density of $S_{a,\ell}$ is $\ell/(\ell^e(\ell^21))$. This is $\ell/(\ell^21)$ when $e = 0$ and $1/(\ell^21)$ when $e = 1$.
In Math. Ann. 166 (1966), 19–23 (the paper is at https://eudml.org/doc/161442 and on MathSciNet see MR0205975) Hasse treated the case $\ell = 2$. The general answer in this case is more complicated, as issues involving $\ell$th roots of unity in the ground field (like $\pm 1$ in $\mathbf Q$ when $\ell = 2$) often are. The density of $S_{a,2}$ for "typical" $a$ is $1/3$, such as when $a \geq 3$ is squarefree. But $S_{2,2}$ has density 17/24, so the set of $p$ for which $2 \bmod p$ has even order has density $17/24$ and the set of $p$ for which $2 \bmod p$ has odd order has density $1  17/24 = 7/24$.
For example, there are $167$ odd primes up to $1000$, $1228$ odd primes up to $10000$, and $9591$ odd primes up to $100000$. There are $117$ odd primes $p \leq 1000$ such that $2 \bmod p$ has even order, $878$ odd primes $p \leq 10000$ such that $2 \bmod p$ has even order, and $6794$ odd primes $p \leq 100000$ such that $2 \bmod p$ has even order. The proportion of odd primes up $1000$, $10000$, and $100000$ for which $2 \bmod p$ has even order is $117/167 \approx .700059$, $878/1228 \approx .71498$, and $6794/9591 \approx .70837$, while $17/24 \approx .70833$.
The math.stackexchange page here treats $S_{7,2}$ in some detail and at the end mentions the case of $S_{2,2}$.

$\begingroup$ Thanks @KConrad for the expression. I was thinking about a combinatorial property of cyclic groups of prime order(called acyclic matching property) and I proved the above mentioned sequence of primes does not hold it. See Proposition 2.3 of core.ac.uk/download/pdf/33123051.pdf Anyway I will like to mention this result in my ongoing research work as a remark, and hence I ask your permission for the same, of course with acknowledgment. $\endgroup$ – Mohsen Sep 25 '20 at 18:09

$\begingroup$ Since the result is due to Hasse, cite his paper when you want to indicate who first showed that the density exists and what its value is. $\endgroup$ – KConrad Sep 25 '20 at 19:35