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Let $X$ be a random variable that is uniformly distributed on the set $\Theta\equiv\left\{ 0,\frac{1}{n},\frac{2}{n},...,\frac{n-1}{n},1\right\} $ for some large $n$. Suppose that the set $\Theta$ is split into $I\geq2$ subsets $S_{1},\ldots,S_{I}$ such that each element $\theta\in\Theta$ is assigned into one subset $S_{i}$.

Denote the probability of set $S_{i}$ by $p_{i}=\sum_{\theta\in S_{i}}\frac{1}{n+1}$, the expectation of $X$ on $S_{i}$ by $\mu_{i}=\frac{\frac{1}{n+1}\sum_{\theta\in S_{i}}\theta}{p_{i}}$, and the variance of $X$ on $S_{i}$ by $VAR_{i}=\frac{\sum_{\theta\in S_{i}}\left(\theta-\mu_{i}\right)^{2}}{(n+1)p_{i}}$. Assume without loss that $\mu_{1}\leq\mu_{2}\leq\cdots\leq\mu_{I}$.

Suppose that the split is subject to the following constraints:

$\frac{\mu_{i}+\mu_{i+1}}{2}-\theta_{max}^{i}\geq c\qquad\forall i\in\left\{ 1,\ldots,I-1\right\}$

where $\theta_{max}^{i}\in S_{i}$ denotes the largest element in $S_{i}$ and $c>0$ is a parameter. Suppose that $c$ is small enough such that a split that satisfies the constraints exists.

My question: It seems that the split that minimizes the weighted variance

$ \sum_{i=1}^{I}p_{i}VAR_{i}=\frac{1}{n+1}\sum_{\theta\in\Theta}\theta^{2}-\sum_{i=1}^{I}p_{i}\mu_{i}^{2}, $

subject to the constraints is such that all the sets $S_{i}$ satisfy the following "convexity" property:

For every $i\in \left\{ 1,...,I\right\} $, if $\theta ^{\prime }\in \Theta $ and $\theta ^{\prime \prime }\in \Theta $ are elements in $S_{i}$ such that $% \theta ^{\prime }<\theta ^{\prime \prime }$, then every $\theta \in \Theta $ that satisfies $\theta ^{\prime }<\theta <\theta ^{\prime \prime }$ is also an elements in $S_{i}$.

Any idea of how to prove this will be greatly appreciated.

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