It turns out that Neyman-Pearson theory helps get a nontrivial inequality.
Notations. For a p.s.d matrix $M$ of size $p$, consider the inner product on $\mathbb R^p$
defined by $\langle x,z \rangle_M := x^TMz$. This induces a norm defined by
$\|x\|_M:=\sqrt{\langle x,x \rangle_M}$.
Theorem (Neyman-Pearson for translated multivaritate Gaussians).
Let $\beta \in \mathbb R$, $\delta\in \mathbb R^p$ and $A$ be a
Borell subset of $\mathbb R^p$. Let $X \sim \mathcal N(0,\Sigma)$ and
$Y:=X+\delta$. Consider the half-space
\begin{eqnarray}
H=\{z \in \mathbb R^p \mid \langle\delta,z\rangle_{\Sigma^{-1}} \le \beta\}.
\end{eqnarray}
- If $\mathbb P(X \in A) \ge \mathbb P(X \in H)$, then $\mathbb P(Y \in A) \ge
\mathbb P(Y \in H)$.
- If $\mathbb P(X \in A) \le \mathbb P(X \in H^c)$, then $\mathbb P(Y \in A) \le
\mathbb P(Y \in H^c)$.
Proof. The log of the ratio of the densities of $Y$ and $X$ is given by
\begin{eqnarray*}
\begin{split}
\log(f_Y(z))-\log(f_X(z)) &=
-\frac{1}{2}(z-\delta)^T\Sigma^{-1}(z-\delta)-\frac{1}{2}z^T\Sigma^{-1}z\\
&= \langle \delta,z \rangle_{\Sigma^{-1}}-\frac{1}{2}\|\delta\|_{\Sigma^{-1}}^2.
\end{split}
\end{eqnarray*}
Thus $f_Y(z) \le t f_X(z)$ iff $\langle \delta,z
\rangle_{\Sigma^{-1}}-\frac{1}{2}\|\delta\|_{\Sigma^{-1}}^2 \le \log(t)$.
Define $t := e^{\beta-\frac{1}{2}\|\delta\|_{\Sigma^{-1}}^2}$. Then $S_t=H$,
and we can apply the Neyman-Pearson Lemma (see Appendix below) to get the claimed results. $\Box$
Appendix
The following Lemma is a modern formulation of the celebrated Neyman-Pearson Lemma.
Lemma (Neyman-Pearson 1933).
Let $A$ be an event in a probability space $\mathcal Z$, and let $X$, $Y$ be random
variables on $\mathcal Z$, with densities $f_X$ and $f_Y$ respectively.
Finally, let $t > 0$ and define
\begin{eqnarray}
S_t:= \{z \in \mathcal Z \mid f_Y(z) \le tf_X(z)\}.
\end{eqnarray}
We have the following:
- If $\mathbb P(X \in A) \ge \mathbb P(X \in S_t)$, then $\mathbb P(Y \in
A) \ge \mathbb P(Y \in S_t)$.
- If $\mathbb P(X \in A) \le \mathbb P(X \in S_t^c)$, then $\mathbb P(Y \in
A) \le \mathbb P(Y \in S_t^c)$.
Proof.
Suppose $\mathbb P(X \in A) \ge \mathbb P(X \in S_t)$, and let $A^c$ be the set
complement of $A$ in $\mathcal Z$. One computes
\begin{eqnarray*}
\begin{split}
&\mathbb P(Y \in A)-\mathbb P(Y \in S_t)=\int 1_A(z)f_Y(z)dz-\int_{S_t}f_Y(z)dz\\
&= \int_{S_t} 1_A(z)f_Y(z)dz+\int_{S_t^c} 1_A(z)f_Y(z)dz-\left(\int_{S_t}
1_A(z)f_Y(z)dz+\int_{S_t} 1_{A^c}(z)f_Y(z)dz \right)\\
&=\int_{S_t^c} 1_A(z)f_Y(z)dz-\int_{S_t} 1_{A^c}(z)f_Y(z)dz\\
&\ge t\left(\int_{S_t^c} 1_A(z)f_X(z)dz-\int_{S_t}
1_{A^c}(z)f_X(z)dz\right),\text{ by definition of }S_t\\
&= t(\mathbb P(X \in A)-\mathbb P(X \in S_t)) \ge 0,\text{ by assumption}.
\end{split}
\end{eqnarray*}
Thus $\mathbb P(Y \in A) \ge \mathbb P(Y \in S_t)$. Similarly, one proves
the second part of the claim with "$\ge$" replaced with "$\le$". $\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\Box$