The idea for this comes from the twin prime conjecture, where the heuristic evidence seems just so overwhelming, especially in the light of Zhang's famous result from 2014 about Bounded gaps between primes and its subsequent improvements.

Are there examples of conjectures with some more or less "good" heuristic arguments, but where those arguments have finally not been "strong" enough?

I don't mean heuristic in the sense that some conjecture holds for small numbers, e.g. the fact that $li\ x-\pi (x) $ was thought to be always positive, before Littlewood showed that not only it eventually changes sign, but does so infinitely often later on. So my question is different from the question about eventual counterexamples.

Likewise, the fact that the first $10^{15}$ or so zeros of the zeta function "obey" RH does tell us something, but not a whole lot compared with infinity. So again this is not what I mean by heuristic.

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