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Hi, I'm trying to find the probability that after n trials of a multinomial rv, there have been exactly d distinct outcomes.

What I'm ultimately trying to calculate is the expected number of trials required to achieve each possible outcome.

I can see how to formulate this as a recurrence relation, but it is doubly recursive and seems impractical to calculate for large values.

Any help appreciated, thanks.

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    $\begingroup$ the magic words are: "coupon collector problem" $\endgroup$
    – Igor Rivin
    Commented Feb 9, 2011 at 16:17

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In the symmetric case, your second question is easy. Assume that each outcome is equally likely. You need $N_0=1$ trial to get $1$ outcome. Once you got $k$ different outcomes, you need $N_k$ more trials to get a new one, where $N_k$ is geometric with parameter $1-(k/n)$, hence $E(N_k)=n/(n-k)$. You get every possible outcome at time $N_0+N_1+\cdots+N_{n-1}$, whose expectation is $$ \sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\frac{n}{n-k}=n\sum_{k=1}^{n}\frac{1}{k}\sim n\log(n). $$

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