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Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a martingale with continuous paths. It was previously shown here and here that then it is impossible that $X_t\to\infty$ almost surely as $t\to\infty$.

Is it possible that there exist a nonrandom sequence $(t_k)$ in $[0,\infty)$ converging to $\infty$ such that $X_{t_k}\to\infty$ almost surely as $k\to\infty$? That is,

do there exist a martingale $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ with continuous paths and a nonrandom sequence $(t_k)$ in $[0,\infty)$ converging to $\infty$ such that $X_{t_k}\to\infty$ almost surely as $k\to\infty$?

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2 Answers 2

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You can construct a continuous local martingale $X$ such that $X(n) = n$ almost surely. Indeed, for $t < 1$, set $Y(t) = B(t/(1-t))$ for $B$ a Brownian motion and then $X(t) = Y(t \wedge \tau)$ with $\tau = \inf\{t>0:Y(t) = 1\}$. Since $Y$ is a continuous local martingale and $\tau$ is a stopping time, $X$ is a continuous local martingale such that $X(1) = 1$ almost surely. It then suffices to concatenate independent copies of that process.

One can tweak the construction to get a genuine martingale by replacing $\tau$ by $\tau_n = \inf \{t>0:Y(t) \in \{1,-n^2\}\}$ over the $n$th interval. The fact that one still has $\lim_{n \to \infty} X(n) = +\infty$ in this case is a consequence of the fact that, by the martingale property, $\mathbb{P}(X(n+1) \neq X(n)+1) = 1/(1+n^2)$ which only happens finitely many times by Borel-Cantelli.

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  • $\begingroup$ Thank you for your answer. I have edited it to fix what I think was a typo. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 21, 2023 at 18:46
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    $\begingroup$ So that I understand, how is $X$ a martingale? It seems like we have $E[X(1)] = 1 \ne 0 = X(0)$. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 22, 2023 at 6:29
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    $\begingroup$ @GeoffreyIrving You are right of course, I should have said that it is a local martingale (which I think was somewhat implicit in the question). Fixed. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 22, 2023 at 7:20
  • $\begingroup$ @IosifPinelis: Did you want a martingale or a local martingale? $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 22, 2023 at 7:53
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    $\begingroup$ @GeoffreyIrving I've tweaked the construction to get a genuine (even bounded) martingale. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 22, 2023 at 8:50
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If the answer to Nate Rivers' last question, and sorry that im not just linking to it, is yes, and people seem to think it is, then you can have convergence in probability to infinity, from which a sequence converging pointwise can be extracted $$$$ I am editing this comment because the machine suggested doing it rather than posting another answer. $$$$ On the interval (n-1,n) represent an r.v. using the incremental brownian motion that has the distribution 1 with prob $1-2^{-n}$ and A with prob $2^{-n}$ where A is chosen to give the r.v mean 0. Then, stringing them together, the martingale converges to infinity at integer points because negative values occur only finitely often.

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    $\begingroup$ Yes, this was the motivation for my question. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 21, 2023 at 16:36
  • $\begingroup$ @IosifPinelis Am I right that you want to use this result as an auxiliary lemma to prove the original claim on convergence in probability? $\endgroup$
    – Nate River
    Commented Dec 21, 2023 at 17:01
  • $\begingroup$ @NateRiver : This is correct. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 21, 2023 at 17:29
  • $\begingroup$ It seems like we can predict the target using the value at $n-1/2$, well enough that this isn’t a martingale. Is that right? That is, it looks like a martingale if we apply the definition only at integer values, but not if we apply the martingale definition at all intermediate values. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 22, 2023 at 7:44

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