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Let $N= \sum_{i=1}^M \delta_{X_i}$ be a mixed Binomial process over $(\mathbb X, \mathcal X)$. I.e., $M$ is a $\mathbb Z_+$ valued random variable with probability mass function $q_M(m)$, $m=0, 1, \ldots$ and $X_i \sim P$ (i.i.d).

Consider a kernel $p: \mathbb X \mapsto [0, 1]$ and let $N_p$ be a $p$-thinning of $N$: each point $X_i$ in $N$ is retained with probability $p(X_i)$.

What is known about $N_p$?

Straightforward calculation show that the Laplace functional of $N_p$ is $$ \mathcal L_{N_p}(f) = \mathbb E\left[- \int f(x) N_p(d x)\right] = \mathcal L_N(\tilde f) $$ where $\tilde f(x) = - \log\left(p(x) e^{- f(x)} + 1 - p(x) \right )$. Moreover, $$ \mathcal L_N(g) = \mathbb E_M \left[\left\{ \int e^{-g(x)} P(dx)\right\}^M\right] $$

When $M \sim \mbox{Poisson}(\lambda)$ then $N$ is a Poisson process and $N_p$ is again a Poisson process with modified intensity. My intuition is that $N_p$ should be a mixed binomial process as well given the similarity with Poisson processes, but I cannot prove/disprove it.

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  • $\begingroup$ In your definition of a mixed binomial process, must $M$ be independent of the $X_i$'s? $\endgroup$ Commented Nov 30, 2023 at 15:26
  • $\begingroup$ I always thought that was the case! $\endgroup$
    – mariob6
    Commented Dec 1, 2023 at 15:36

1 Answer 1

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$\newcommand{\XXX}{\mathbb X}\newcommand{\de}{\delta}$The answer is yes.

Indeed, for any nonnegative measurable function $f$ defined on $\XXX$, letting $Nf:=\int f\,dN=\sum_{i=1}^M f(X_i)$ and assuming that $M$ is independent of the $X_i$'s, we have \begin{equation*} Ee^{-Nf}=\sum_{m\ge0}q_m(Ee^{-f(X)})^m, \tag{1}\label{1} \end{equation*} where $X:=X_1$ and $q_m:=P(M=m)$. Next, we may write \begin{equation*} N_p=\sum_{i=1}^M \de_{X_i}\,1(U_i<p(X_i)), \end{equation*} where the $U_i$'s are independent random variables (r.v.'s) uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$ and independent of the $X_i$'s and $M$. So, letting $U:=U_1$, we have \begin{equation*} Ee^{-N_pf}=\sum_{m\ge0}q_m(Ee^{-f(X)1(U<p(X))})^m. \end{equation*} Next, \begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} &Ee^{-f(X)1(U<p(X))} \\ &=\int P(X\in dx)\int_0^{p(x)}du\,e^{-f(x)}+\int P(X\in dx)\int_{p(x)}^1 du \\ &=\int P(X\in dx)[p(x)e^{-f(x)}+1-p(x)] \\ &=1+\int P(X\in dx)p(x)(e^{-f(x)}-1). \end{aligned} \end{equation*} Introducing now a random element $Z$ in $\XXX$ with the distribution \begin{equation*} P(Z\in dx)=\frac{P(X\in dx)p(x)}c,\quad\text{with}\quad c:=\int P(X\in dy)p(y)\in(0,1] \end{equation*} (and avoiding the trivial case with $c=0$), we get \begin{equation*} Ee^{-f(X)1(U<p(X))}=1+c\int P(Z\in dx)(e^{-f(x)}-1) \\ =cEe^{-f(Z)}+1-c. \end{equation*} So, \begin{equation*} (Ee^{-f(X)1(U<p(X))})^m=\sum_{j=0}^m\binom mj c^j(1-c)^{m-j}(Ee^{-f(Z)})^j \end{equation*} and hence \begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} Ee^{-N_pf}&=\sum_{m\ge0}q_m(Ee^{-f(X)1(U<p(X))})^m \\ &=\sum_{m\ge0}q_m \sum_{j=0}^m\binom mj c^j(1-c)^{m-j}(Ee^{-f(Z)})^j \\ &=\sum_{j\ge0}r_j(Ee^{-f(Z)})^j, \end{aligned} \end{equation*} where $r_j:=\sum_{m=j}^\infty q_m\binom mj c^j(1-c)^{m-j}$. So, \begin{equation*} Ee^{-N_pf}=\sum_{j\ge0}r_j(Ee^{-f(Z)})^j. \tag{2}\label{2} \end{equation*} Choosing $f=0$ in \eqref{2}, we see that $\sum_{j\ge0}r_j=1$.

Finally, comparing \eqref{2} with \eqref{1}, we conclude that any "thinned" mixed binomial process is indeed a "nonthinned" mixed binomial process: $N_p$ is equal in distribution to the random measure \begin{equation} \tilde N_p:=\sum_{i=1}^J \de_{Z_i}, \end{equation} where the $Z_i$'s are independent copies of $Z$ and $J$ is a r.v. independent of the $Z_i$'s and such that $P(J=j)=r_j$ for all $j$. $\quad\Box$


The probabilistic meaning of the random measure $\tilde N_p$ is transparent: Refer to $X_i$ as the random position of the $i$th particle in the space $\XXX$. Then, for each $i$, the r.v. $p(X_i)$ is the conditional probability that the $i$th particle will survive (be retained) given its position $X_i$. So, $c=\int P(X\in dy)p(y)=Ep(X_i)$ is, for each $i$, the "total", space-averaged survival probability of the $i$th particle. So, the distribution of each of the independent $Z_i$'s is the conditional distribution of the position $X_i$ of the $i$th particle given its survival. Finally, the conditional distribution of the random time extent $J$ given the random time extent $M$ is the binomial distribution of the number of successes in $M$ independent trials with success probability $c$ in each trial, if success is defined as survival.

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