Consider a square lattice (random) graph $G$ embedded on a toroidal surface. Each edge $(i, j)$ of the graph has an associated likelihood probability $p_{ij}$. The probabilities $p_{ij}$ come from a probability distribution with some general parameters like mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma$, etc.
I'd like to study the likelihood ratio of homologically non-trivial cycles to homologically trivial cycles in this setting and ideally set some reasonable upper bounds on this likelihood ratio. Is there any relevant research related to this?
I've found that people have studied inhomogenous percolation models in random graphs where they use a method based on generating functions to derive the critical percolation threshold. This is not the same problem but it at least smells similar.