3
$\begingroup$

The following question was asked today:

How many flips $n$ of a fair coin are needed to get at least one run of at least $k$ consecutive heads with probability $P_{k,n}\ge1/2$?

The question was negatively received and deleted by the OP. However, the answer to this question is not quite trivial and has been a subject of several studies. This answer will be given below.

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

3
$\begingroup$

According to Mathworld (see also Wikipedia), $$P_{k,n}=1-\frac{F_{k,n}}{2^n},\tag{1}$$ where, for each natural $k$, $(F_{k,n})_{n=1}^\infty$ is the sequence of $k$-step Fibonacci numbers, defined recursively by the formula $$F_{k,n}=\sum_{i=1}^k F_{k,n-i}\tag{2}$$ with the initial conditions $F_{k,n}=0$ for $n\le0$ and $F_{k,1}=F_{k,2}=1$. It is known (see e.g. formula (4)) that for $k\ge2$ $$F_{k,n}=R\Big(\frac{(r_k-1) r_k^{n-1}}{(k+1) r_k-2 k}\Big),\tag{3}$$ where $R(x)$ is the nearest integer to a real number $x$, and $r_k$ is the only root $r$ of the equation $r^k(2-r)=1$ in the interval $(1,2)$.

It follows that for each fixed natural $k\ge2$ we have $F_{k,n}=r_k^{(1+o(1))n}=o(2^n)$ as $n\to\infty$. In view of (1), this implies that the smallest $n$ in question exists and equals $$n_k:=\min\{n\colon F_{k,n}\le\tfrac12\,2^n\}.$$

The values of $n_2,\dots,n_{10}$, found by Mathematica -- in about 0.1 sec using (2) (storing all the previously found values of $F_{k,n}$), and in about 6 sec using (3) -- are $4, 10, 22, 44, 89, 178, 356, 711, 1421$. Also, obviously, $n_1=1$.

$\endgroup$
2
  • $\begingroup$ Nice answer: Related: Enumerating binary strings without r-runs of ones, by MA Nyblom.Available via Google scholar profile at scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=FxpK36cAAAAJ&hl=en $\endgroup$
    – kodlu
    Feb 24, 2020 at 8:05
  • $\begingroup$ @kodlu : Thank you for your comment and the reference to Nyblom's paper; I actually had seen it. $\endgroup$ Feb 24, 2020 at 15:23

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.