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(1a) $\exists \text{ strategy } S: \forall x, y: \exists \delta > 0$: $S$ answers correctly on $x$, $y$ with probability at least $1/2 + \delta$.

 

(1b) $\exists \text{ strategy } S: \forall \text{ probability distributions } P \text{ on } \mathbb{N}^2: \exists \delta > 0$: $S$ answers correctly, when $x$, $y$ are chosen according to $P$, with probability at least $1/2 + \delta$.

(1a) $\exists \text{ strategy } S: \forall x, y: \exists \delta > 0$: $S$ answers correctly on $x$, $y$ with probability at least $1/2 + \delta$.

(1b) $\exists \text{ strategy } S: \forall \text{ probability distributions } P \text{ on } \mathbb{N}^2: \exists \delta > 0$: $S$ answers correctly, when $x$, $y$ are chosen according to $P$, with probability at least $1/2 + \delta$.

For the first game, by symmetry, you clearly can't do better than choosing a door randomly, which gives you a success probability of exactly 1/2. However, the second game is obviously better! You are playing for the same goal with strictly more information, so you should expect to be able to do somewhat better. The tricky thing is quantifying how much better, since it's not clear how to reason about the relationship between two numbers if you know one of the numbers and have no information about the other one. Indeed, it isn't even possible to quantify it mathematically.

For the first game, by symmetry, you clearly can't do better than choosing a door randomly, which gives you a success probability of exactly 1/2. However, the second game has a chance of being better. You are playing for the same goal with strictly more information, so you might expect to be able to do somewhat better. [I had originally said that it was obviously better, but now I'm not so sure that it's obvious.] The tricky thing is quantifying how much better, since it's not clear how to reason about the relationship between two numbers if you know one of the numbers and have no information about the other one. Indeed, it isn't even possible to quantify it mathematically.

1. You are given two closed doors, A and B, with two numbers behind them, and your goal is to choose the door with the higher number. You are given no information about the doors or numbers.

2. You are given two closed doors, A and B, with two numbers behind them, and your goal is to choose the door with the higher number. You are allowed to look behind one of the doors and then make your choice.

1. (Tyler's interpretation.) We really want the probability of answering the question correctly given a particular $x$ and $y$ to be greater than 1/2. (The exact probability will of course depend on the two numbers.)

2. (Critch's interpretation.) More generally, we want the probability of answering correctly given a particular probability distribution for $(x,y)$ to be greater than 1/2. (The exact probability will of course depend on the distribution.)

G1. You are given two closed doors, A and B, with two numbers behind them, and your goal is to choose the door with the higher number. You are given no information about the doors or numbers.

G2. You are given two closed doors, A and B, with two numbers behind them, and your goal is to choose the door with the higher number. You are allowed to look behind one of the doors and then make your choice.

I1. (Tyler's interpretation.) We really want the probability of answering the question correctly given a particular $x$ and $y$ to be greater than 1/2. (The exact probability will of course depend on the two numbers.)

I2. (Critch's interpretation.) More generally, we want the probability of answering correctly given a particular probability distribution for $(x,y)$ to be greater than 1/2. (The exact probability will of course depend on the distribution.)