Timeline for Chances to win an election
Current License: CC BY-SA 2.5
21 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Mar 1, 2017 at 18:47 | history | notice added | Todd Trimble | Historical significance | |
| S Mar 1, 2017 at 18:47 | history | locked | Todd Trimble | ||
| Dec 6, 2009 at 0:17 | answer | added | David E Speyer | timeline score: 5 | |
| Dec 6, 2009 at 0:16 | answer | added | Ilya Nikokoshev | timeline score: 4 | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 23:45 | answer | added | REDace0 | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 23:08 | answer | added | Theo Johnson-Freyd | timeline score: 4 | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:55 | history | edited | Alexandru Moșoi | CC BY-SA 2.5 |
added 341 characters in body; added 2 characters in body
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| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:16 | history | edited | José Figueroa-O'Farrill |
edited tags
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| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:13 | answer | added | Wim ten Brink | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:05 | answer | added | José Figueroa-O'Farrill | timeline score: 0 | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:05 | comment | added | Harry Gindi | The chances to win an election are log(exp(-1)). | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:04 | comment | added | Alexandru Moșoi | You may assume any simplification you want. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:03 | comment | added | Gil Kalai | if you ask what is the probability that B wins and still from a random poll of 1100 voters 750 vote A and 250 B the answer is 0. It is true that people change their minds and also that polls are not entirely reliable. Fot the question you asked even under realistic scenario I would regard 1 as the best answer. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:01 | comment | added | José Figueroa-O'Farrill | Or even if they do vote as they told the pollster, it's not clear that the sampling was probabilistic. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 22:01 | comment | added | Alexandru Moșoi | Assume that the people won't lie to the pollster and they won't change their mind. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:57 | comment | added | Mariano Suárez-Álvarez | Without some details about how you model the chances of people lying to the pollster and/or changing their minds after the poll, this has no answer/. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:49 | comment | added | Alexandru Moșoi | Real case: in Romania the president will be elected tomorrow. Polls say 54% voters will choses one candidate and 46% for the other. I wouldn't simply say that first candidate will win. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:43 | history | reopened | Kim Morrison | ||
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:42 | history | closed | Kim Morrison | not a real question | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:40 | comment | added | Gil Kalai | much much much much much higher. I would simply say 1. | |
| Dec 5, 2009 at 21:32 | history | asked | Alexandru Moșoi | CC BY-SA 2.5 |