Timeline for Modeling question: how often does "the world's oldest person" die?
Current License: CC BY-SA 2.5
10 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Aug 14, 2021 at 16:00 | comment | added | Denis Serre | Of course, you must know that the topologist Leopold Vietoris became the ever oldest Austrian man. He died at 110. | |
| Feb 4, 2011 at 0:39 | comment | added | Romeo | @Bridge: that's an interesting process. | |
| Feb 3, 2011 at 22:46 | comment | added | The Bridge | Hi just to say I voted down the question not because of the question itself but because of its (relative) success. I have seen many really interesting questions on the forum that couldn't get more than 3 positive votes so when this question gets more than 20 ups I feel like it's a little unfair to those guys posting deep questions. Regards. | |
| Feb 3, 2011 at 18:57 | comment | added | Mark Bennet | The reason that the variation in life expectancy is significant is that if there is a sub-population of - say - 10% of the world's population which has a much higher expectation of life than the rest, then the problem reduces to that population modulo a very small adjustment. | |
| Feb 3, 2011 at 18:53 | comment | added | Mark Bennet | @James - thanks. One problem with my intuition here is assuming a stable population and assuming that different people have identically distributed life chances are both unrealistic. So there are bulges - and life expectancy varies hugely between social groups and geographical locations. | |
| Feb 3, 2011 at 18:45 | answer | added | Or Zuk | timeline score: 4 | |
| Feb 2, 2011 at 13:28 | comment | added | James Martin | @Mark: to imply a Poisson process you would also need independence between the days. This doesn't hold in general here. A process can be stationary in time without being Poisson. | |
| Feb 2, 2011 at 12:24 | comment | added | Mark Bennet | Given the steady state of the population, the expected distribution of ages would be the same at eg midnight each day, so the probability of the death happening on any particular day would be the same. This would imply a poisson process. Or is this just a misconceived comment which has missed some subtlety? | |
| Feb 2, 2011 at 9:55 | history | edited | Mike Spivey |
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| Feb 2, 2011 at 9:35 | history | asked | David Feldman | CC BY-SA 2.5 |