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Jul 21 at 5:28 comment added Tobias Fritz I've updated my answer with an improved upper bound.
Jul 14 at 10:55 answer added Tobias Fritz timeline score: 4
Jul 13 at 7:14 comment added Tobias Fritz @DrewBrady: thanks for asking, as this made me realize that what I wrote wasn't quite right; I believe that $\sup_\mu \mathbf{P}[X_1 + X_2 + X_3 < 3 X_4]$ is actually $3/4$, but can't quite prove it yet. I've corrected the argument now. It may be a bit terse, so let me know in case that you'd like me to expand.
Jul 13 at 7:12 history edited Tobias Fritz CC BY-SA 4.0
correction
Jul 12 at 17:30 comment added Drew Brady What do you mean by "a symmetrization argument shows that..."?
Jul 12 at 15:44 answer added jlewk timeline score: 10
Jul 12 at 15:23 history edited Tobias Fritz CC BY-SA 4.0
typo
Jul 12 at 14:58 history edited Tobias Fritz CC BY-SA 4.0
clearer language concerning sup
Jul 12 at 13:43 comment added Will Sawin For a distribution to be globally optimal a necessary condition is that it be locally optimal, which in particular implies that the function sending $Y$ to $ 3 \mathbb P[X_1 + X_2 + Y < 3 X_4] + \mathbb P [X_1+X_2+X_3< Y]$ is maximized for $Y$ in the support of the distribution. I didn't check rigorously but I'm pretty sure this is not true for the Gamma distribution, so it can't literally be the optimum, although it could be close.
Jul 12 at 11:10 history asked Tobias Fritz CC BY-SA 4.0