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Sep 17, 2023 at 11:40 history bounty ended Samuel Johnston
Sep 14, 2023 at 12:26 comment added Samuel Johnston Thanks for the response - this is exactly the heuristic I was looking for!
Sep 11, 2023 at 17:57 vote accept Samuel Johnston
Sep 11, 2023 at 16:18 comment added Terry Tao And I believe there actually is some free probability result that any fixed square matrix with free unitary entries is itself unitary after renormalization (this is basically the moment calculation you allude to). I don't have a reference for this handy though.
Sep 11, 2023 at 16:07 comment added Terry Tao The heuristic that the entries of a random unitary (or orthogonal) matrix behave like iid gaussians is quite a good one; see e.g., arxiv.org/abs/math/0601457
Sep 11, 2023 at 15:56 history answered Will Sawin CC BY-SA 4.0