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Oct 17, 2010 at 13:35 comment added Mike Spivey Thank you. Of course, one of the problems with a question like this is the modeling aspect. I'm hoping that the collective minds on Math Overflow will help me improve my model as well as answer the probability questions.
Oct 17, 2010 at 12:00 comment added Ketil Tveiten That there is some amount of rest between rounds suggests that the distributions of performance should also depend on time, i.e. how many rounds one has already played. Certainly, stamina is sometimes decisive in tennis, for instance. So, I don't think performance being independent between rounds is a good assumption, at least if one wants to have an accurate model (though that isn't really the problem yet, I guess).
Oct 17, 2010 at 7:25 history answered Bjørn Kjos-Hanssen CC BY-SA 2.5