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Dec 2, 2021 at 20:14 comment added Sophie M @SamHopkins Yes, $k=1$ is special because a single map generates a commutative monoid; $k \geq 2$ should be different. An average-case version of my question, closer to yours: Fix $k$ and $\ell$. Let $\{ f_1, \dots, f_k \}$ be a set of $k$ distinct maps $[n] \to [n]$ chosen uniformly at random. Let $i_1, \dots, i_{\ell}$ be chosen from $\{ 1, \dots, k \}$ uniformly and independently (both from each other and the $f_i$'s). What is the probability that $f_{i_{\ell}} \circ \cdots \circ f_{i_1}$ is a constant map?
Dec 2, 2021 at 19:37 comment added Sam Hopkins @SophieMacDonald: For $k=1$ in your set-up, the worst-case expectation will be less than $2n$: because the only singletons allowed correspond to arboresences, whose longest paths must be $< n$ in length. (Incidentally it is a classical fact that the probability a random map $[n]\to [n]$ is eventually constant under self-composition is $1/n$: this is equivalent to Cayley's formula for the number of labeled trees on $[n]$. There is also a beautiful $q$-analog of this: doi.org/10.1080/00029890.2021.1868384)
Dec 2, 2021 at 19:20 comment added Sophie M A refinement of the question, since the accepted answer links to a complete solution: suppose you draw your functions instead from the uniform distribution on some subset $\{ f_1, \dots, f_k \}$, where there is some sequence of these $f_i$'s that composes to a constant map. For a given $k$, which sets $\{ f_1, \dots, f_k \}$ will maximize the expected number of compositions required for a constant map? How small does $k/n^n$ have to be before this worst-case expectation is substantially larger than $2n$?
Dec 1, 2021 at 20:19 history became hot network question
Dec 1, 2021 at 19:13 vote accept Sam Hopkins
Dec 1, 2021 at 19:12 answer added esg timeline score: 5
Dec 1, 2021 at 19:07 comment added Sam Hopkins @esg: that's terrific! Please post it as an answer so I can accept it!
Dec 1, 2021 at 18:59 comment added esg See this paper of Fill: citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/…
Dec 1, 2021 at 17:33 answer added David E Speyer timeline score: 4
Dec 1, 2021 at 16:27 history edited Sam Hopkins CC BY-SA 4.0
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Dec 1, 2021 at 16:17 comment added Sam Hopkins @PeterTaylor: it would be very interesting if the leading term were $2n$...
Dec 1, 2021 at 15:31 answer added Peter Taylor timeline score: 6
Dec 1, 2021 at 15:02 comment added Peter Taylor Empirically, based on calculations up to $n=99$, it seems to be roughly $1.99n - 2.48$.
Dec 1, 2021 at 14:13 comment added Sam Hopkins We could even consider the distribution of the random partition $(a_1,a_2,\ldots)$ where $a_i$ is the cardinality of the image of $g_i$ minus one.
Dec 1, 2021 at 12:19 history asked Sam Hopkins CC BY-SA 4.0