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Jul 6, 2021 at 4:47 vote accept Nate River
Jul 5, 2021 at 20:19 answer added Kasper Andersen timeline score: 3
Jul 5, 2021 at 12:05 comment added Brendan McKay @KasperAndersen That's a good observation, but it has no bearing on the expectation of the number of arrangements which is $k!/n!$. Your expression is the expectation of the number of arrangements modulo circular shift.
Jul 5, 2021 at 11:50 comment added Kasper Andersen @BrendanMcKay: Note that if $x_1\ldots x_k=1$ then any cyclic rearrangment has product $1$ as well. Hence I think the assympotics for $k$ fixed and $n$ large is actually $\frac{(k-1)!}{n!}$.
Jul 5, 2021 at 10:10 comment added Kasper Andersen The probability is given by $1/n!$ for $k=1$ and $2$ and by $\frac{2\cdot n!-p(n)}{(n!)^2}$ (where $p(n)$ is the partition function) for $k=3$.
Jul 5, 2021 at 5:53 comment added Brendan McKay For any fixed order, the product is also a uniform random permutation. So the expected number of arrangements equal to the identity is $k!/n!$. However the probability cannot exceed $1/2$ no matter how large $k$ is (think parity). I think this problem has been studied; hopefully someone will know it.
Jul 5, 2021 at 5:01 history asked Nate River CC BY-SA 4.0