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Oct 6, 2018 at 7:35 answer added Robert Furber timeline score: 5
Oct 2, 2018 at 4:16 history edited John Baez CC BY-SA 4.0
fixed typo
Oct 2, 2018 at 4:15 comment added John Baez I'll fix the typo.
Oct 1, 2018 at 2:37 comment added Robert Furber @benblumsmith You are right. The probabilities $\frac{1}{2}$ and $\frac{1}{4}$ should be the other way round, as they are in John's linked blog post.
Sep 27, 2018 at 19:01 comment added benblumsmith Confused by the claim that 1/2 the elements in a group can lie in its center. The max is 1/4, maybe this is what you meant? (This is what is attained by $Q_8$ and $D_4$.) In general, the center cannot have prime index since the quotient by the center cannot be cyclic (or $G$ would be generated over the center by a single element and then it would be abelian, contradiction), and the smallest composite number is 4.
Sep 26, 2018 at 1:33 comment added John Baez After Gjegji gave his nice answer I considered adding the Moufang condition; it's possible general loops are too "floppy" to give an interesting answer. Mounfang loops of small order have been listed, so someone could compute their probabilities of associativity.
Sep 25, 2018 at 1:31 comment added Robert Furber The other thing to mention is that the octonion 16-loop is not just any kind of loop, but a Moufang loop (and the Ježek-Kepka loops are not Moufang). Moufang loops have a Lagrange theorem, so the argument about the maximal size of the nucleus (the associativity analogue of the centre) might work. I have no idea about the second part of the argument.
Sep 25, 2018 at 1:27 comment added Robert Furber lies on the line and four that don't, so the probability of associativity given distinct elements different from 1 is $\frac{1}{5}$. All together, the answer is $\frac{169}{512} + \frac{343}{512} \cdot \left(\frac{19}{49} + \frac{30}{49} \cdot \frac{1}{5}\right) = \frac{43}{64}$.
Sep 25, 2018 at 1:25 comment added Robert Furber For what it's worth, the probability is $\frac{43}{64}$. Proof: We can restrict to dealing with positive signs in a triple (a,b,c) because the signs don't affect whether it associates or not. The probability of having at least one 1 is $1 - \left(\frac{7}{8}\right)^3 = \frac{169}{512}$. The probability, given that there's no 1, that at least two elements of the triple are the same is $1 - 1 \cdot \frac{6}{7} \cdot \frac{5}{7} = \frac{19}{49}$. If all three elements are different, then they associate iff they lie on a line in the Fano plane. Given the first two points, there is one point that..
Sep 22, 2018 at 23:59 answer added Gjergji Zaimi timeline score: 28
Sep 22, 2018 at 23:32 history asked John Baez CC BY-SA 4.0