A couple of posts ([1], [2]) on matheducators.SE seem to suggest that Leibniz originally got the wrong form for the product rule, perhaps thinking that $(fg)'=f'g'$. Is there any actual historical evidence for this?

It seems particularly hard to believe that he would have made the hypothesis $(fg)'=f'g'$. We would then have $x'=(1x)'=(1')(x')=0$. And presumably anyone inventing calculus would take $(x^2)'$ to be a prototypical problem, and would realize pretty early on that $(x^2)'\ne (x')(x')=1$. It's also pretty trivial to disprove this conjecture based on dimensional analysis or scaling.

There is some discussion on this Wikipedia talk page, with some sources cited, but it appears to be inconclusive.

A couple of posts ([1], [2]) on matheducators.SE seem to suggest that Leibniz originally got the wrong form for the product rule, perhaps thinking that $(fg)'=f'g'$. Is there any actual historical evidence for this?

It seems particularly hard to believe that he would have made the hypothesis $(fg)'=f'g'$. We would then have $x'=(1x)'=(1')(x')=0$. And presumably anyone inventing calculus would take $(x^2)'$ to be a prototypical problem, and would realize pretty early on that $(x^2)'\ne (x')(x')=1$. It's also pretty trivial to disprove this conjecture based on dimensional analysis or scaling.

There is some discussion on this Wikipedia talk page, with some sources cited, but it appears to be inconclusive.