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May 21, 2014 at 0:27 comment added Qiaochu Yuan I"m claiming that there isn't anything being permuted if you only look at $\mathbb{Z}$ (obviously the logarithms of primes are not cycle lengths, e.g. they aren't commensurate), but also that there's no reason to restrict your attention to $\mathbb{Z}$. I'm reasonably confident that you get the same kind of statistics for any Dedekind domain $D$ such that $D/P$ is always finite for all prime ideals $P$.
May 21, 2014 at 0:23 comment added john mangual your answer is good, but I am not asking about $\mathbb{F}_q[x]$ I am asking about $\mathbb{Z}$.
May 21, 2014 at 0:19 comment added Qiaochu Yuan I find that comment strange. If you're willing to take an analogy between prime factorization and cycle decomposition seriously I don't see how it could hurt to know that it factors through an analogy to factorization of polynomials over finite fields, which on the one hand is part of a well-established analogy between number fields and function fields (which requires no knowledge of etale cohomology to appreciate) and where on the other hand I can explicitly point to a permutation that determines the factorization.
May 21, 2014 at 0:18 comment added john mangual I am not asking about function fields, I am asking about number fields and $\mathbb{Z}$
May 21, 2014 at 0:16 comment added Qiaochu Yuan What does that comment have to do with my answer?
May 21, 2014 at 0:14 comment added john mangual I think I understand the Frobenius map really well $x \mapsto x^q$ but I certainly do not get Étale cohomology.
May 21, 2014 at 0:11 history edited Qiaochu Yuan CC BY-SA 3.0
added 87 characters in body
May 20, 2014 at 23:58 history answered Qiaochu Yuan CC BY-SA 3.0