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I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below (this last point now seems unlikely; see the remark at the end of the answer).

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

Edit: See also my related question An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$ ; especially Ilya Bogdanov's excellent example which indicates that $P(m,n)$ for larger values of $n$ is perhaps not a polynomial from the start and also probably not the Erhart polynomial for ${\mathcal C}(n)$.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below (this last point now seems unlikely; see the remark at the end of the answer).

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

Edit: See also my related question An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$ ; especially Ilya Bogdanov's excellent example which indicates that $P(m,n)$ for larger values of $n$ is perhaps not a polynomial from the start and also probably not the Erhart polynomial for ${\mathcal C}(n)$.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below (this last point now seems unlikely; see the remark at the end of the answer).

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

Edit: See also my related question An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$ ; especially Ilya Bogdanov's excellent example which indicates that $P(m,n)$ for larger values of $n$ is perhaps not a polynomial from the start and also probably not the Erhart polynomial for ${\mathcal C}(n)$.

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I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below (this last point now seems unlikely; see the remark at the end of the answer).

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

Edit: See also my related question An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$ ; especially Ilya Bogdanov's excellent example which indicates that $P(m,n)$ for larger values of $n$ is perhaps not a polynomial from the start and also probably not the Erhart polynomial for ${\mathcal C}(n)$.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below.

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below (this last point now seems unlikely; see the remark at the end of the answer).

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

Edit: See also my related question An integrality question about expressing an integer as a product of numbers below $n$ ; especially Ilya Bogdanov's excellent example which indicates that $P(m,n)$ for larger values of $n$ is perhaps not a polynomial from the start and also probably not the Erhart polynomial for ${\mathcal C}(n)$.

Linked the problem to work of Khovanskii. Proved $P(m,n)$ is a polynomial.
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I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

AgainWe consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ tendsis large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to infinitya convex polytope defined below. To

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

It still remains interesting to ask whetherIn view of the answerabove translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is always a nice polynomial in $m$$N$ for large $N$. Perhaps it is Khovanskii also considers the Erhart polynomial ofspecial situation when $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$? There$G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of course an extensive literature on this (e$G$ which generates all of $G$.g This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems), but I'm not an expert here which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

Again consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ tends to infinity. To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

It still remains interesting to ask whether the answer is always a nice polynomial in $m$. Perhaps it is the Erhart polynomial of $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$? There is of course an extensive literature on this (e.g. work of Barvinok and Woods), but I'm not an expert here.

I add this as a new answer as it has a somewhat different flavor from my previous response. Moreover the bounds given there may still be useful. Thanks also to Edgardo for a useful discussion.

We consider the case when $n$ is fixed and $m$ is large. First we translate the problem into one of counting lattice points in certain polytopes. It will then follow from work of Khovanskii that for $P(m,n)$ here (for $m$ large) is given by a polynomial in $m$ of degree $\pi(n)$ and whose leading coefficient will be described below. It may be that for $P(m,n)$ is in fact a polynomial from the start, and maybe just the Erhart polynomial attached to a convex polytope defined below.

To each natural number below $n$ associate a vector in ${\Bbb Z}^{\pi(n)}$ with non-negative coordinates corresponding to the exponents in the prime factorization of that number. Thus when $n=5$ we have the vectors $(0,0,0)$, $(1,0,0)$, $(0,1,0)$, $(2,0,0)$ and $(0,0,1)$. Let ${\mathcal C}(n)$ denote the convex hull of these $n$ vectors. If a number $N$ is written as a product of $m$ numbers below $n$, then the prime factorization of $N$ gives a vector which is contained in the set ${\mathcal C}(n)$ dilated by $m$. Therefore it follows that the $P(m,n)$ is at most the number of lattice points contained in $m\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ which is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Further note that any vector in $(m-n)\cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ can be expressed as a sum of at most $m$ of the $n$ vectors corresponding to $1$ to $n$. Therefore $P(m,n)$ is at least as large as the number of lattice points contained in $(m-n) \cdot {\mathcal C}(n)$ and this also is asymptotically $$ m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n)). $$

Thus we have shown that $P(m,n) \sim m^{\pi(n)} \text{Vol}({\mathcal C}(n))$. My previous answer may be seen as giving upper and lower bounds for the volume of ${\mathcal C}(n)$ by bounding it from above and below by simplices.

In view of the above translation, we see that the problem may be phrased generally as follows: Given a commutative semigroup $G$ and two finite subsets $A$ and $B$ of $G$, consider all elements that are the sum of an element of $B$ and $N$ elements of $A$; call this set $B+N*A$. Theorem 1 of Khovanskii's paper (Newton polyhedron, Hilbert polynomial, and Sums of Finite sets; translation from Russian of his paper in Functional analysis & Applications 1992) then shows that the number of elements in $B+N*A$ is a polynomial in $N$ for large $N$. Khovanskii also considers the special situation when $G$ is ${\Bbb Z}^n$ and $A$ is a finite subset of $G$ which generates all of $G$. This is the situation of the problem at hand, and his work in Section 3 of the cited paper is along the lines of the argument I gave above. Another interesting paper on this topic is the work of Barvinok and Woods (Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems) which led me to Khovanskii's paper.

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