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Oct 20, 2009 at 2:32 comment added Will Orrick One last comment: This wasn't intended as a pedagogical question. Clearly the students need to learn about Bayes theorem. I was more interested in trying to formulate the analogy between disjointness and independence more completely for my own benefit.
Oct 20, 2009 at 2:15 comment added Will Orrick To elaborate a little bit more: In inclusion-exclusion, one alternately adds and subtracts intersections. Intersections measure the degree to which disjointness fails. Can we write the right-hand side of Bayes Theorem as alternate multiplications and divisions of something, where "something" measures the degree to which independence fails.
Oct 20, 2009 at 1:54 comment added Will Orrick This certainly works. I suppose what I was looking for was something in which the symmetry between A, B, and C was more manifest on the right-hand side. Of course I realize the symmetry really is still there.
Oct 20, 2009 at 1:42 history answered Anna Varvak CC BY-SA 2.5