As pointed out in the comments, the matrix has nothing to do with the question, and you are simply trying to compute the distribution of $x \cdot v$ as $x$ varies over the unit sphere, and $v$ is a fixed unit vector. By rotational invariance, you might as well assume that $v = (1, 0, \dots, 0),$ at which point the question becomes an easy integration exercise.
Edit if you don't want to bother integrating, the concentration of measure phenomenon (first observed by Boltzmann, I believe) is that the distribution of the areas of cross sections of the sphere is essentially normal for moderate $n.$ ( you can easily compute the variance), so then you can approximate the answer to your question by an inverse error function.