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You can use inclusion-exclusion to show that the number of permutations in $S_m$ having at least $n$ fixed points is $$\sum_{k=n}^m (-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1}{m\choose k}(m-k)! = m! \sum_{k=n}^m (-1)^{k-n}\frac{k-1}{k!}$$ -1)^{k-n}\frac{1}{k!}{k-1\choose n-1}$$We describe now how to obtain the lefthand expression, since the righthand expression is obtained from the lefthand one by straightforward manipulation. The {m\choose k} comes from choosing k fixed points, the (m-k)! counts permutations in S_m having these k fixed points, and then (-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1} is an inclusion-exclusion counting coefficient, namely the Möbius function \mu (\hat{0},\hat{1}) on the subposet of the Boolean algebra of subsets of { 1,\dots ,k }  where we exclude the subsets having size 1\le i \le n-1. One way to calculate this Möbius function is to use that each rank-selection of the Boolean algebra is lexicographically shellable. The desired Möbius function will be (-1)^{k-n} multiplied by the number of so-called descending chains'' in the lexicographic shelling, which in this case is the number of permutations in S_k that are ascending in the first n letters and then descending after that, which in particular forces the letter k to be the n-th letter in the permutation (in one-line notation). This includes the well-known special case (usually phrased in terms of derangements) that the number of permutations in S_m with at least one fixed point is \sum_{k = 1}^m (-1)^{k-1} {m\choose k}(m-k)!  which equals  - (-m! + \sum_{k= 0}^m(-1)^k {m\choose k}(m-k)!) . As m goes to infinity, this approaches  -m!(-1 + 1/e) = m!(1-1/e). A good reference for the n=1 case is chapter 2 of Enumerative Combinatorics, Volume 1, by Richard Stanley. The original source for lexicographic shellability is Anders Björner's paper Shellable and Cohen-Macaulay partially ordered sets''. Added later: the comments above mention the recontres numbers. These give an approach for obtaining the n>1 case as a consequence of the n=1 case -- by choosing your fixed point set and then counting derangements on the remaining letters, summing over the possible fixed point sets. This results in a double sum, with an alternating sum as the inner sum. 5 added 260 characters in body You can use inclusion-exclusion to show that the number of permutations in S_m having at least n fixed points is$$\sum_{k=n}^m (-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1}{m\choose k}(m-k)! $$= m! \sum_{k=n}^m (-1)^{k-n}\frac{k-1}{k!}$$

We describe now how to obtain the lefthand expression, since the righthand expression is obtained from the lefthand one by straightforward manipulation.

The ${m\choose k}$ comes from choosing $k$ fixed points, the $(m-k)!$ counts permutations in $S_m$ having these $k$ fixed points, and then $(-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1}$ is an inclusion-exclusion counting coefficient, namely the Möbius function $\mu (\hat{0},\hat{1})$ on the subposet of the Boolean algebra of subsets of ${ 1,\dots ,k }$ where we exclude the subsets having size $1\le i \le n-1$.

One way to calculate this Möbius function is to use that each rank-selection of the Boolean algebra is lexicographically shellable. The desired Möbius function will be $(-1)^{k-n}$ multiplied by the number of so-called descending chains'' in the lexicographic shelling, which in this case is the number of permutations in $S_k$ that are ascending in the first $n$ letters and then descending after that, which in particular forces the letter $k$ to be the $n$-th letter in the permutation (in one-line notation).

This includes the well-known special case (usually phrased in terms of derangements) that the number of permutations in $S_m$ with at least one fixed point is $\sum_{k = 1}^m (-1)^{k-1} {m\choose k}(m-k)!$ which equals $- (-m! + \sum_{k= 0}^m(-1)^k {m\choose k}(m-k)!)$. As $m$ goes to infinity, this approaches $-m!(-1 + 1/e) = m!(1-1/e)$. A good reference for the $n=1$ case is chapter 2 of Enumerative Combinatorics, Volume 1, by Richard Stanley. The original source for lexicographic shellability is Anders Björner's paper Shellable and Cohen-Macaulay partially ordered sets''.

Added later: the comments above mention the recontres numbers. These give a faster an approach for obtaining the $n>1$ case quickly as a consequence of the $n=1$ case -- by choosing your fixed point set and then counting derangements on the remaining letters, summing over the possible fixed point sets. This results in a double sum, with an alternating sum as the inner sum.

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You can use inclusion-exclusion to show that the number of permutations in $S_m$ having at least $n$ fixed points is $$\sum_{k=n}^m (-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1}{m\choose k}(m-k)!$$

The ${m\choose k}$ comes from choosing $k$ fixed points, the $(m-k)!$ counts permutations in $S_m$ having these $k$ fixed points, and then $(-1)^{k-n}{k-1\choose n-1}$ is an inclusion-exclusion counting coefficient, namely the Möbius function $\mu (\hat{0},\hat{1})$ on the subposet of the Boolean algebra of subsets of ${ 1,\dots ,k }$ where we exclude the subsets having size $1\le i \le n-1$.

One way to calculate this Möbius function is to use that each rank-selection of the Boolean algebra is lexicographically shellable. The desired Möbius function will be $(-1)^{k-n}$ multiplied by the number of so-called descending chains'' in the lexicographic shelling, which in this case is the number of permutations in $S_k$ that are ascending in the first $n$ letters and then descending after that, which in particular forces the letter $k$ to be the $n$-th letter in the permutation (in one-line notation).

This includes the well-known special case (usually phrased in terms of derangements) that the number of permutations in $S_m$ with at least one fixed point is $\sum_{k \ge 1} = 1}^m (-1)^{k-1} {m\choose k}(m-k)!$ which equals $- (-m! + \sum_{k\ge 0}(-1)^k sum_{k= 0}^m(-1)^k {m\choose k}(m-k)!) =$. As $m$ goes to infinity, this approaches $-m!(-1 + 1/e) = m!(1-1/e)$. A good reference for the $n=1$ case is chapter 2 of Enumerative Combinatorics, Volume 1, by Richard Stanley. The original source for lexicographic shellability is Anders Björner's paper Shellable and Cohen-Macaulay partially ordered sets''.

Added later: the comments above mention the recontres numbers. These give a faster approach for obtaining the $n>1$ case quickly as a consequence of the $n=1$ case -- by choosing your fixed point set and then counting derangements on the remaining letters, summing over the possible fixed point sets.

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