MathOverflow will be down for maintenance for approximately 3 hours, starting Monday evening (06/24/2013) at approximately 9:00 PM Eastern time (UTC-4).
show/hide this revision's text 2 added 17 characters in body

Your sum can also be thought of as the first $\alpha n$ terms in a binomial distribution with probability of success $p=1-\frac1{\lambda+1}$. So, it is closely approximated by a normal distribution with mean $np$ and standard deviation , $\sqrt{np(1-p)}$, i.e., $$\sum_{k=0}^{\alpha n} \binom nk \lambda^k\approx (1-p)^{-n}\Phi\left((\alpha-p)\sqrt{\frac n{p(1-p)}}\right),$$ where $\Phi$ is the cumulative standard normal distribution.

show/hide this revision's text 1

Your sum can also be thought of as the first $\alpha n$ terms in a binomial distribution with probability of success $p=1-\frac1{\lambda+1}$. So, it is closely approximated by a normal distribution with mean $np$ and standard deviation, i.e., $$\sum_{k=0}^{\alpha n} \binom nk \lambda^k\approx (1-p)^{-n}\Phi\left((\alpha-p)\sqrt{\frac n{p(1-p)}}\right),$$ where $\Phi$ is the cumulative standard normal distribution.