A stochastic process is a collection of random variables usually indexed by a totally ordered set.

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539 views

### Error term for renewal function

Consider a sequence of independent uniform $[0,1]$ random variables, and for nonnegative real $t$, let $m(t)$ be the expected number of terms in the first partial sum that exceeds $t$. For instance ...

**6**

votes

**2**answers

1k views

### Finite time hitting probabilities for Brownian motion in the plane

Consider a Brownian particle in the plane with a circular trap at the origin. If we give the particle enough time it falls into the trap (since Brownian motion is space filling in 2D). However, ...

**6**

votes

**2**answers

552 views

### Birkhoff Ergodic Theorem and Ergodic Decomposition Theorem for Continuous-Time Markov Processes

I have a couple of questions regarding ergodicity for Markov processes in continuous time. (In particular, the first question seems like it should be particularly basic, and yet I haven't managed to ...

**2**

votes

**0**answers

105 views

### Do the Birkhoff averages of a measurable stationary homogeneous Markov process in continuous time “converge to the right limit”?

[I've decided to rewrite the question, to make the essential point clearer.]
Let $\,\mathbb{R}^{[0,\infty)}:=\{(x_t)_{t \geq 0} : x_t \in \mathbb{R} \ \, \forall t\}$. We say that a set $Y \subset ...

**21**

votes

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1k views

### Drawing natural numbers without replacement.

Suppose we start with an initial probability distribution on $\mathbb{N}$ that gives positive probability to each $n$. Let's call this random variable $X_1$ so we have $P(X_1=n)=p_{1,n}>0$ for all ...

**14**

votes

**3**answers

10k views

### Maximum of Gaussian Random Variables

Let $x_1,x_2,…,x_n$ be zero mean Gaussian random variables with covariance matrix $\Sigma=(\sigma_{ij})_{1\leq i,j\leq n}$.
Let $m$ be the maximum of the random variables $x_{i}$
$$
...

**12**

votes

**3**answers

489 views

### An “inchworm-like” random walk on an integer interval

Imagine I place $k$ stones on an infinite one-dimensional integer interval $Z$ s.t. no stone is more than some distance $d$ from any other stone. For example, if $d=1$ and $k = 5$, we might place the ...

**16**

votes

**4**answers

3k views

### A Markov process which is not a strong markov process?

Can anyone give an example of a Markov process which is not a strong Markov process? The Markov property and strong Markov property are typically introduced as distinct concepts (for example in ...

**8**

votes

**2**answers

2k views

### Gaussian processes, sample paths and associated Hilbert space.

Given a Gaussian process on some topological space $T$, with a continuous covariance kernel
$C(\cdot,\cdot)\colon T\times T\to R$, we can associate a Hilbert space, which is the reproducing kernel ...

**8**

votes

**1**answer

2k views

### Progressively measurable vs adapted

I often see in stochastic calculus books the terms 'adapted process' and 'progressively measurable process'. I know there is a small difference between them (every progressively measurable process is ...

**5**

votes

**3**answers

575 views

### A non-degenerate martingale

Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$ be a probability space, on which
$\mathcal{F}_t$ is filtration satisfying general conditions.
$W_t$ is
a standard Brownian motion.
Let $Y_t$ be a martingale given by
...

**5**

votes

**2**answers

375 views

### Wiener measure and Bochner Minlos

I am reading probability theory and I have a question. The Bochner-Minlos theorem roughly says that if we have $E \subset H \subset E^*$ where $H$ is a Hilbert space, then there is a unique measure ...

**3**

votes

**1**answer

79 views

### Density for Translated Process

Let $M$ be a (compact) Riemannian manifold. Let $v$ be a smooth vector field on $M$ with flow $\Theta_t$. Let $L$ be an elliptic second order differential operator on $M$ that generates the Ito ...

**6**

votes

**1**answer

389 views

### How does the distribution of Erdős number evolve over time ? How to build a model to fit the real data ?

Let $E(n,t)$ be the number of mathematicians with finite positive Erdős number $n$ at time $t$. As old mathematicians leave, and new mathematicians come, how does $E(n,t)$ change over time ?
We can ...

**6**

votes

**4**answers

526 views

### Calculating the probability of an event defined by a condition on a Gaussian random process

Although the question itself can be expressed succinctly, I couldn't come up with a nice self-explanatory title - suggestions are welcome.
Motivation/Background
I was investigating whether it would ...

**5**

votes

**3**answers

812 views

### One can earn nothing on the Brownian motion, true ?

Consider any discrete time stochastic process $p(n)$ (price) with independent increments $\xi_k$ and $E(\xi_k)=0$. E.g. Brownian motion (i.e. $\xi_k = N(0,1)$).
Consider some "trading strategy" ...

**5**

votes

**2**answers

278 views

### Liverani's CLT (a question)

Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P)$ be a probability space where $\Omega$ is a complete separable metric space, let $T:\Omega\to \Omega$ ` be an ergodic transformation, let $\hat{T}:L^{2}_{_P}(\Omega)\to ...

**4**

votes

**1**answer

194 views

### Area enclosed by Brownian motion (without winding number)

The question Average Value of Area Closed by Brownian Motion turned out to be about the Lévy area process, which measures "signed area with multiplicity" enclosed by Brownian motion (e.g. each ...

**4**

votes

**1**answer

216 views

### Concurrency related problems in $n$ independent, parallel $M/M/1$ queues

Queueing Model:
Consider $n$ independent, parallel $M/M/1$ queues with identical arrival rate $\lambda$ and service rate $\mu$. For each $M/M/1$ queue, we use the FCFS (First Come First Served) ...

**4**

votes

**2**answers

255 views

### Generalization of Lévy's continuity theorem for nuclear spaces

I am interested in a generalization of the following finite-dimensional results in infinite dimensional vector-space with nuclear structure, especially for the cases of the spaces of distributions ...

**4**

votes

**1**answer

1k views

### A stochastic process that is 1st and 2nd order (strictly) stationary, but not 3rd order stationary

I asked this question on stats.stackexchange.com a little while back but didn't get an answer. It was suggested that I post it here at the time. There appears to be some migratory problems going on ...

**3**

votes

**2**answers

2k views

### stopping time expectation for gambler's ruin

2 players A and B start with x & y dollars respectively, and they bet against each other 1 dollar each time by tossing a fair coin.
I let $X_n = x + \sum_{i=1}^{n}\xi_i$ where $\xi_i$ are i.i.d. ...

**2**

votes

**1**answer

141 views

### Numerical computation of Skorokhod integral

How can I numerically compute the Skorokhod integral of a non-adapted process? If it is adapted, that is easy since the integral is just an Ito integral.
I have found that computing the Malliavin ...

**2**

votes

**1**answer

825 views

### Hitting time probability in a Random Walk with possibility to die.

A Random Walker can move of one unit to the right with probability $p$, to the left with probability $q$ and it can jump again to the starting point with probability $r$ and die. Naturally $p+q+r=1$. ...

**2**

votes

**1**answer

2k views

### Right-continuity of natural filtrations

My question: Is the natural filtration of a right-continuous process also right-continuous?
I would say yes, but don't know where to start proving it.
Thanks for your help/ideas!

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vote

**2**answers

699 views

### Change of time or change of measure

Consider simple diffusion $dX_t = \sigma dw_t$ and a parameter $a>0$ and $X_0=x$. Let us denote $Y_t = X_{at}$ - thus we made a change of time. Let us denote an original measure as $P$. How to find ...

**5**

votes

**2**answers

225 views

### Brownian motion in $n$ dimensions

Consider a particle starting at the origin in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and undergoing Brownian motion. Is there an expression known for the probability of the particle hitting the sphere $S^{n - 1}_r = \{x \in ...

**5**

votes

**1**answer

184 views

### Optimisation of betting strategy

Consider integers $r \geq 1$ and $k \geq 1$ and consider the following game:
We start with $r$ tokens and at each round we choose $i \in \{1,...,r\}$ tokens to bet (if we have $N<r$ tokens we ...

**4**

votes

**1**answer

183 views

### A queuing process where customers must be detected

Imagine a scenario where customers arrive in some queue according to a Poisson process with rate parameter $\lambda_{arr}$, and where the process of responding to the customers has a kind of ...

**3**

votes

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114 views

### Extreme couplings

Let $X,Y$ be Polish spaces, and $\mu$ and $\nu$ are probability measures on $X$ and $Y$ respectively. We say that $M$ is a coupling of $\mu$ and $\nu$ if it is a probability measure on $X\times Y$, ...

**3**

votes

**1**answer

237 views

### Characterizations of the GOE/GUE family of distributions

This question is somewhat related to this one. Loosely speaking, when should I expect a GOE/GUE distribution? The angle of my approach to this is not through statements such as "there is a natural ...

**3**

votes

**1**answer

287 views

### Casino does not win, while clients do lose ? Prob_loss(T) = 1 - .8/sqrt(T)?

Setup. Let casisno generate a color: black or red with equal probability.
Let client try to guess the color. If guess is correct - he earns 1 coin from casino, if not - he gives one to casino. If he ...

**3**

votes

**1**answer

817 views

### Topological conditions of Kolmogorov Extension Theorem

KET is often used to construct stochastic processes in continuous time when the state space is $\Bbb R^d$. As far as I am familiar with its proof, it uses standard monotonic class-like arguments ...

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votes

**2**answers

103 views

### A question about Skorokhod embedding problem

The Skorokhod Embedding Problem is well known and has many solutions. Now let $B=(B_t)_{t\ge 0}$ be a standard Brownian motion and $\tau$ be an embedding to the centered distribution $\mu$, i.e. the ...

**2**

votes

**1**answer

281 views

### Empirical estimator fot the total variation distance on a finite space

I have two probability measures $p$ and $p'$ on a finite set $X$ which I do not know precisely, but which I can sample from. I would like to estimate their total variation (omitting multiplier $2$):
...

**2**

votes

**1**answer

420 views

### Probability that a “closable” self-avoiding random walk forms a polygon

Consider a self-avoiding random walk on an infinite graph (for concreteness, the grid of 2-dimensional lattice points $\mathbb{Z}^2$), in which on each step, the next position is chosen uniformly at ...

**1**

vote

**0**answers

58 views

### Modify exponential family representation to a semimartingale

Given a filtered space $(\Omega, F,\mathcal{F}_{t})$ with rightcontinous filtration. We have a class of probability measures $P=\{P_{\theta}:\theta \in \Theta\}$ definied on the filtered space.
We ...

**1**

vote

**1**answer

177 views

### Arc Sine law for Random Walk conditioned to non-absorption or not?

Let $S_n$ be simple symmetric Random walk on the integers in $[-N,N]$ with states $N$ and $-N$ absorbing. Let $\tau$ be the time to absorption when $S_0 = 0$.
Is the $E(S^{2}_{n}| \tau \geq n)$ ...

**1**

vote

**0**answers

110 views

### Scaling of First-passage times for Random Walk on integer lattices

Consider simple symmetric random walk $S_{n} = (S_{n}^{(1)},\dots,
S_{n}^{(d)})$ on the d-dimensional integer lattice with starting point the origin.
Let $\tau_{N}$ be the first time $S_{n}$ exits ...

**1**

vote

**1**answer

102 views

### Is it true that all stationary measurable stochastic processes are “measurably stationary”?

(Philosophically, the following question is of a similar flavour to A stochastic process that is 1st and 2nd order (strictly) stationary, but not 3rd order stationary, but more "advanced".)
Let ...

**0**

votes

**2**answers

461 views

### Representation theorem for continuous uniformly integrable martingales

For some time $u$ and positive continuous process $a_t$ adapted to $\mathcal{F}_t$ I have a (continuous-time) martingale defined as:
$$M_t(u) = \mathbb{E}[a_u | \mathcal{F}_t]$$
for $t\leq u$. I ...

**-1**

votes

**1**answer

128 views

### Property of relative entropy [closed]

For $X$ a measurable space and $P,Q$ two probability measures on $X$ s.t. $Q$ is absolutely continuous with respect to $P$, the relative entropy is defined as
$$D(Q\|P)=\int_X \log(\frac{dQ}{dP})dQ,$$
...