Applied, computational and theoretical statistics: e.g. statistical inference, regression, time series, multivariate analysis, data analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, design of experiments, case studies.

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3
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1answer
137 views

Markov Chains based on sampled transition probabilities [closed]

If I have a process that transitions between states with some set, unknown probability, I can sample to find the transition probability. This probability is a sample average, with a well understood ...
-1
votes
1answer
272 views

Rank of covariance matrix whose diagonal elements are same [closed]

Suppose A is a covariance matrix whose diagonal elements are same, i.e. $A_{1,1}=A_{2,2}=\cdots=A_{N,N}$, can we conclude that A is full rank? Suppose the absolute values of the off-diagonal elements ...
0
votes
2answers
116 views

Rewrite optimization objective

Hi, I wanted to ask, under which conditions can one rewrite the optimization objective $\min_x f(x)\;\;\;s.t.\;\;\;g(x) \leq s$ as $\min_x g(x)\;\;\;s.t.\;\;\;f(x) \leq t$ I have particular ...
1
vote
1answer
134 views

Understanding the rationale behind “batch means” estimation

Hello all, I am implementing an MCMC algorithm for my work, and I've come upon something in the literature which I just can't understand. Specifically, I am attempting to estimate the amount of ...
4
votes
0answers
115 views

envelope function for a linear combination of gaussian distributions

Given a distribution $F$ defined as a linear combination of Gaussian distributions: $F = \sum_{i=1}^n C_i*N(\mu_i,\sigma_i)$ with $\sum_{i=1}^n C_i = 1$ I want to find a Gaussian function $Q = ...
1
vote
1answer
89 views

Convergence to a k-dimensional Gaussian vector

Suppose I have a sequence of stochastic processes $X_{N}(t)$, $N=1,2,3,\ldots$ with mean zero and that I know for every fixed $t$, the random variable $X_{N}(t)$ converges in law to a Gaussian random ...
4
votes
3answers
446 views

Incremental entropy computation

After a quick internet search I found no method for incremental entropy computation. Question 1 Let $\{x_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and $\{x_i\}_{i=1+n}^{n+m}$ be two samples and let $S_i^j:=\sum_{k=i}^j x_k$. ...
2
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0answers
105 views

Marginalizing multivariate normal over defined interval

Hello everyone, I am trying to obtain an analytic expression for the following Gaussian integral $$\frac{1}{\sqrt{(2 \pi)^n |\Sigma|}} \int \kern-0.2em \cdots \kern-0.2em \int d\mathbf{x}_{\sim i} ...
0
votes
3answers
313 views

Random infinite sequence : Can machines generate truly random sequences. [closed]

Test : "A True Random Sequence Source and a computer producing a certain sequence of numbers are kept in separate rooms and judges try to tell them apart by conducting a series of tests on the ...
9
votes
0answers
216 views

Testing contrasts in statistics: Is this provably a hard problem, or not?

Scheffé's method for identifying statistically significant contrasts is widely known. A contrast among the means $\mu_i$, $i=1,\ldots,r$ of $r$ populations is a linear combination $\sum_{i=1}^r c_i ...
2
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1answer
82 views

How to simulate random paths of a non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov process with discrete state space for a given infinitesimal generator matrix?

Let $X=(X_{t},t \in T)$ be a non-homogeneous, continuous time Markov process with a finite state space S={1,...,K}. Let $\alpha_{i,j}(t)$ be the hazard rates of some $\varGamma$-distributed random ...
4
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0answers
64 views

Importance sampling of finite path of stochastic difference equation

Before passing to question, let me briefly recap what's importance sampling of random variables is about. Suppose $\xi$ is a real-valued random variable with density $f$, and let $g:\Bbb R\to \Bbb R$ ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

Distribution for probability of an incorrect inference based on a comparison of only two samples?

I'm trying to demonstrate the problems of how taking a sample and assuming it reflects the population accurately can be problematic. Imagine say an urn with some large number of balls, black and ...
1
vote
2answers
237 views

A machine learning application question

I am familiar with basic probabilities, random processes but not so much of machine learning methods. This is the problem I am trying to solve. I want to predict the nature of user activity on a ...
0
votes
1answer
103 views

What is the Bahadur-Anderson Algorithm?

What is the Bahadur-Anderson Algorithm, and which book could one read to learn it?
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0answers
177 views

Joint distribution from multiple marginals

Consider an experiment consisting of a repeated trial with two random Bernoulli (=binary) variables, A and B. Each trial consists of multiple outcomes for both A and B. Each trial has the same number ...
0
votes
1answer
148 views

How to combine correlated signals !? [closed]

Hi everybody There are 11 signals: S_main : The original signal S1 ~ S10 : 10 signals that are correlated to S_main with different correlation coefficients (coeff1 ~ coeff10) Now here's the ...
2
votes
0answers
344 views

Concentration of sum of independent random variables

Let $X_1, ..., X_n$ be i.i.d. sub-Gaussian random variables with mean $0$ and variance $1$. That is, we have $Pr[|X_i| > t] \leq \exp(1-t^2/K^2)$ for all $t>0$ and a parameter $K$. Then we can ...
1
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0answers
334 views

Prove that the sum of a certain infinite series is 1

Prove the (numerically-evident) proposition that \begin{equation} \Sigma_{i=0}^\infty f(i) = 1, \end{equation} where \begin{equation} f(i)= 2^{-4 i-6} q(i) \frac{\Gamma(3 i+\frac{5}{2}) \Gamma(5 ...
2
votes
1answer
396 views

correlation for three variables? [closed]

suppose we have three variables here, x,y, z now, what we know is that the correlation between x and z is 0.6, the correlation between y and z is 0.65. Here is the question, is there any formula to ...
3
votes
2answers
293 views

Probability distribution for two-state system that depends on residence time

I am a statistical physicist, and I've come across a problem that I don't know how to solve. I believe my issue lies with how to formulate it mathematically. I'd be very grateful for any assistance, ...
0
votes
3answers
418 views

Probability that one RV will exceed many others

Assume the $1 \times N$ vector $\mathbf X = [X_1, X_2, \ldots , X_N]$ contains i.i.d. normal samples such that $\mathbf X$ has a multivariate normal distribution. Now assume another random variable ...
1
vote
0answers
117 views

Placing Bounds on Correlation/Covariance Through Correlation with an Intermediate Variable

I am trying to make the most of computations that have already been performed in previous steps of an algorithm. Throughout this problem statement I am only mentioning correlation, but I think it is ...
1
vote
1answer
120 views

Transition time in finite voter model

I believe the following problem is related to something called the "voter model" in statistics. This is not my area of expertise so please forgive me if the answers turn out to be well known. ...
1
vote
1answer
130 views

ROC curve with repeated measures

Hi, I have some repeated measures data, one measurement a day for three days in a row, and the measured variable looks normally distributed. I have two groups, the "really ill" and the "not ill after ...
3
votes
1answer
189 views

Exact sampling from 2D Ising model where coupling is constant?

What progress has been made towards sampling from the 2D lattice Ising model with the following Hamiltonian: $H=-J\sum_{\langle i,j \rangle}S_iS_j - \sum_i b_iS_i$ Where the first sum runs over all ...
2
votes
1answer
413 views

Expectation of the trace of an inverse of a random matrix

Given a $N \times M$ matrix $X$ comprised of standard normal entries ($M > N$), I'm interested in approximating $E[trace((XX^T\frac{\gamma}{M} + I)^{-1}]$ in terms of $N, M$ and $\gamma$. ...
2
votes
1answer
229 views

The first eigenvalue of a branching process matrix

Let $M$ be the real square matrix of a typed branching process, such that $M_{ij}$ is the expected value of offspring of type $j$ emanating from type $i$. We know that if the first eigenvalue if $M$ ...
0
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1answer
52 views

On Variance Break detection

Say that the variance of a constant mean scalar stochastic process can take finite number of values. The problem is to detect the the point of break in variance as observation data comes in. I tried ...
2
votes
1answer
220 views

Estimator for sum of independent and identically distributed (iid) variables

This interesting question was asked at http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/231455/estimator-for-sum-of-independent-and-identically-distributed-iid-variables a while ago but got no answers. The ...
3
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0answers
95 views

A simplified MCMC / MH algorithm. Are there known convergence results?

Hi, I hope this isn't too basic. We were working on a simulation using a Monte Carlo Within Metropolis algorithm and noticed that the whole thing could be expressed in the form below and simplified ...
3
votes
1answer
429 views

The average number of people that can sit on a bench of a given length.

Let me explain what I mean: The width of the average person varies, perhaps with a normal distribution. Given a specific variance, how many people (on average) can sit side-by-side on a bench of a ...
0
votes
1answer
321 views

Expected value with a kronecker product and Gaussian distributional assumption

What is the expected value, $ \mathbb{E}\left[ I \otimes \left( \operatorname{diag}(ZZ^T\mathbf{1}) - ZZ^T\right)\right]$ where $Z \sim N(0, \sigma^2I) $? The kronecker product is where the confusion ...
0
votes
1answer
161 views

How many ways we know to join two line segments with a smooth transitional function?

This topic was created to discuss how many ways we know to create piecewise linear functions with smooth transitions between the phases. An alternative is presents by Bacon & Watts (1971): the ...
0
votes
1answer
378 views

Has the controversy about *fiducial distribution* been settled? [closed]

Has the controversy about the correct meaning of Fisher's notion fiducial distribution meanwhile been settled? And are there newer applications than quoted in the following literature? G.P. Klimov: ...
10
votes
3answers
444 views

Rapid evaluation of multivariate normal integral

I'm implementing a model that requires me to numerically evaluate a multivariate normal integral of the following form $$\int_{-\infty}^\infty \phi(z)\displaystyle\prod_{i=1}^N \Phi(a_iz+b_i) \, ...
15
votes
1answer
436 views

The Chow & Robbins game ≈ 0.79295350640: improvements could come from simple statistics, or from a continuous version of the game

This question seeks help with improving a numerical estimate of the value of the Chow and Robbins game. Much about this game is unknown, such as whether its value is rational, but there are two routes ...
0
votes
1answer
142 views

Expression for the square of the correlation of two Gaussian variables as an expectation value

Dear all, I might just be blind, so forgive me if it is a trivial question. Given two normally distributed variables $x_1$ and $x_2$ (with zero mean), their correlation $c$ can be estimated from the ...
2
votes
1answer
104 views

How to calculate average lifespan of a new population?

What's the best estimate one can make about the average lifespan of a new population? For instance, let's say an alien kind of life came to earth and we're able to breed then. We then get 1000 aliens ...
3
votes
1answer
175 views

Is the Binomial Expectation of a Multivariate Convex Function Convex in the Vector p?

Let $\mathbf{p}=(p_1,\dots,p_m)$ be a vector in $[0,1]^m$ and let $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\dots,X_m)$ be a vector of independently-distributed binomial random variables such that $X_i\sim ...
0
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0answers
91 views

Two Different Representations of Multivariate Bernstein Polynomials

In the literature the multivariate Bernstein polynomial of a function $f:[0,1]^m\rightarrow\mathbb{R}$ is often defined as the following: $$B_{f,n}(x_1,\dots,x_m)=\sum_{\mathbf{k}\in ...
5
votes
3answers
480 views

Concentration of sum of pairwise squared Euclidean distances of random vectors

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n $ be independent random vectors in $B(0, D) \subset R^d$ ($\ell_2$ ball of radius $D$ centered at the origin). I am trying to find the concentration of the following quantity ...
2
votes
0answers
183 views

Is connected correlation/cumulant expansion additive?

Say X is a free field or a Gaussian random variable. Then I want to analyse the connected correlation, $<(X + a (X^2 - \langle X^2 \rangle))^n>_c$ I think that for $n \geq 4$ there are no ...
2
votes
1answer
133 views

Optimization problem

I'm trying to solve a very practical optimization problem and I think I hit a dead-end. There are $N$ products ($N \sim 50$). Each product can have a price $p_i$ in range between 1 and 40 dollars. ...
1
vote
1answer
149 views

Moments of the Kolmogorov distribution

Up to what order do the moments of the Kolmogorov distribution exist? References would be appreciated.
4
votes
2answers
313 views

Expectation of $(c+e^{N(0,\sigma^2)})^{-n},\, n>0$

I would like to know if there's a way to compute or approximate the following expectation: $$\mathbb{E}[(c+e^X)^{-n}]$$ where $X=N(0,\sigma^2)$ and $n,c>0$ (you can also assume that $n$ is a ...
2
votes
1answer
314 views

Probability Density Optimization

I am working on an optimization problem which I am stuck on towards the end. Essentially, I have two probability density functions in $\mathbb{R}^2$, call them $q(x,y)$ and $p(x,y)$, now I define ...
1
vote
1answer
78 views

Estimate which random variable has highest expectation

Problem: You are given a sample of size $m$ from $n$ independent normally distributed random variables. Expectations and standard deviations of the random variables are unknown. Estimate, which ...
3
votes
1answer
125 views

Statistical properties of principal components and their convergence rates.

Hello everyone, I'm interested in doing statistical tests on properties of principal components, but none of the literature I've found so far seems quite right for my purposes. Many articles present ...
5
votes
2answers
444 views

Is the Binomial Expectation of Convex Function Convex in p?

Suppose $X$ has a binomial distribution with success probability $p$ and $n$ trials and let $h(\cdot)$ be a positive convex real-valued function. Is the function $g(p)=\mathbb{E}[h(X)\ |\ p]$ convex ...