Questions tagged [st.statistics]
Applied and theoretical statistics: e.g. statistical inference, regression, time series, multivariate analysis, data analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, design of experiments.
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Relevant mathematics to the recent coronavirus outbreak
I would like to ask about (old* and new) reliable mathematical literature relevant to various mathematical aspects of the recent coronavirus outbreak: In particular, standard statistical/mathematical ...
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How long for a simple random walk to exceed $\sqrt{T}$?
Let $R_n$ be a simple random walk with $R_0 = 0$, and let $T$ be the smallest index such that $k\sqrt{T} < |R_T|$ for some positive $k$.
What is an expression for the probability distribution of $...
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How is the "conformal prediction" conformal?
The question is clarified by Prof.V.Vovk. See his answer below for discussion.
Recently, early works of Gammerman, Vanpnik and Vovk[4] are rediscovered by Wasserman et.al[1] and proposed it as a ...
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How do I convert a uniform value in [0,1) to a standard normal (Gaussian) distribution value?
I have uniform value in [0,1). I'd like to transform it into a standard normal distribution value, in a deterministic fashion.
What I'm confused about with the Box-Muller transform is that it takes ...
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Probabilistic (and other mathematical) methods of physics without the physics?
Many of the methods of physics are vastly more general than their use in that discipline. For example, information theory overlaps with a lot of statistical mechanics, and the latter actually ...
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What's the maximum entropy probability distribution given bounds [a,b] and mean?
What is the continuous probability distribution that maximizes entropy, given only the bounds of the random variable [a,b] and the mean mu of the probability distribution?
For example:
if a=0, b=1, ...
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Berry Esseen type result for probability density functions
Let $X_1, X_2, \cdots$ be i.i.d. random variables with $E(X_1) = 0, E(X_1^2) = \sigma^2 >0, E(|X_1|^3) = \rho < \infty$.
Let $Y_n = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ and let us note $F_n$ (resp. $\...
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Archaeogenetics
This question is meant to be applied to recover historic information from genetic data.
The following model, is (probably) the simplest possible which takes recombinations into account.
First, let ...
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Throwing a fair die until most recent roll is smaller than previous one
I roll a fair die with $n>1$ sides until the most recent roll is smaller than the previous one. Let $E_n$ be the expected number of rolls. Do we have $\lim_{n\to\infty} E_n < \infty$? If not, ...
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A remarkable identity involving $\chi^2$ random variables
In the process of computing inclusion constants for the complex matrix cube (which is a free spectrahedron), the following identity was proven: for all $n \geq 1$,
$$\mathbb E \Big| \sum_{i=1}^{2n} ...
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what can be said about the choice of a prior in Bayesian statistics?
When reading about the Bayesian approach to statistics, priors are an important component of the whole methodology.
Yet, it seems like priors are chosen without any specific theoretical motivation. ...
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Constructing Bernoulli random variables with prescribed correlation
For which $n \times n$ correlation matrix $C$ can one construct Bernoulli random variables $(B_1, \ldots, B_n)$ with correlation $C$ ?
Following the approach described in this MO thread, one can ...
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1
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Square root of normal distribution
Let $X$ and $Y$ be independent random variates with the same probability distribution, $P(x)$. Assuming that the product $Z=XY$ is a random variate with normal distribution, say $$f_Z(x) = \frac{1}{\...
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What is the maximum-entropy distribution given mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis?
$X\in \mathbb{R}$. Which distribution $P(X)$ has the highest possible entropy given its expected value, variance, skewness, and kurtosis? Is it an exponential family distribution of the form $P(X) \...
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KL divergence and mixture of Gaussians
Do we have an exact formula to compute the KL divergence between 2 mixtures of Gaussians (i.e convex combinations of a finite number of Gaussian distributions)?
If not exactly known, are there good ...
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What is hidden in Hidden Markov Models? [closed]
Why the word "hidden" present in hidden markov model? What exactly is hidden.
Whatever is hidden in HMM isn't it hidden in normal Markov Models?
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Mixtures of Gaussian distributions dense in distributions?
It seems that a mixture of Gaussians can approach any probability distribution, as the number of mixture components approaches infinity. Is this true? And if so, is it precise and correct to say ...
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Distance metric between two sample distributions (histograms)
Context: I want to compare the sample probability distributions (PDFs) of two datasets (generated from a dynamical system). These datasets depend on a set of parameters, and I want a concise way to ...
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Eigenvalues of Laplacian-Beltrami operator
I am interested in the first non zero eigenvalue of the Laplace-Beltrami operator in a 2D compact manifold, and if there is a geometric characterization of its value.
I am interested in the case when ...
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Coin pusher game
While doing laundry at my local laundromat, I saw a coin pusher game. Below is a picture, and here is a video depicting how it works (disregard non-coins).
Essentially, one has a distribution of ...
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Notions of "independent" and "uncorrelated" for subsets of the natural numbers
In probability/statistics, there is a notion of two things being "independent", which would basically mean that any information we can get about one thing has no effect on our (probabilistic)...
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What are some of the surprising results of finite sample statistical estimation?
I'm trying to familiarize myself with the latest results in finite sample statistics. It seems to me that these results can be classified into two categories:
Unsurprising results confirm that the ...
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What can be said about the concentration of measure of product of Gaussian variables?
I have a set of random variables $X_1,\ldots,X_n$, all Gaussian with mean 0 and variance 1, indepedent. Let $p(x_1,\ldots,x_n)$ be some polynomial that takes products and sums of $x_1,\ldots,x_n$.
...
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Which books should I read in order to be prepared to study information geometry?
At the moment, I am preparing my master's thesis (in statistics) and I intend to keep studying in order to pursue a doctoral degree. To be precise, I am mainly interested in studying Information ...
user127351
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Probability distribution derived from gamma function - does it have a name?
Consider the complex gamma function, denoted by $\Gamma(\sigma+it)$.
Now, let's fix $\sigma$ and let t vary. Then consider the following expression:
$$|\Gamma(\sigma+it)|^2$$
For any choice of $\...
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(almost) statistical independence of nodes degrees in a graph
Wireless networks are typically modeled as random geometric graphs. The number of nodes $N$ in the network is drawn from a Poisson distribution with intensity $\lambda$
$$P(N = n) = \frac{\lambda^n ...
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Estimate rate of real correct/wrong from 4 answers quiz.
I recently read that one in ten students think the first man on the moon was Buzz Lightyear, a Toy story cartoon. I'm not here to discuss the data in itself, rather, this reading got me into a problem ...
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Stochastic Covering Number of a Convex Set
Consider a convex set, say $S = [0,1]^d$. Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots,X_n, \ldots$ be i.i.d. random variables that are uniformly distributed on $S$. Denote the Euclidean ball centered at $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ ...
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Covariance of INID order statistics [closed]
In the IID case, it is known that all order statistics are positively correlated.* Thus, we know that $$\text{Cov}(X_{(i)},X_{(j)}) \geq 0.$$ Is this known in the INID (independent, non-identically ...
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Functional Weak Convergence of Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Let $\hat{\theta}_n$ be the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of parameter $\theta$, where $n$ is the sample size. It is well-known that under sufficient regularity conditions, we have the asymptotic ...
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Bounding the probability that a random variable is maximal
Question: Suppose we have $N$ independent random variables $X_1$, $\ldots$, $X_N$ with finite means $\mu_1 \leq \ldots \leq \mu_N$ and variances $\sigma_1^2$, $\ldots$, $\sigma_N^2$.
I am looking ...
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Random Voronoi Diagrams
I'm interested in what research has already been done with regards to the statistics of random voronoi diagrams. I have had a look on google scholar and results are a little inconclusive. I'm ...
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Approximation of a normal distribution function
I am reviewing and documenting a software application (part of a supply chain system) which implements an approximation of a normal distribution function; the original documentation mentions the same/...
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Random Walks on high dimensional spaces
I've read on a paper that, in the two dimensional case, if you start from the origin and take steps of length one in arbitrary directions (uniformely on the unit sphere $S^1$, not left-right-up-down), ...
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Applications of cohomology to probability and statistics
Are there interesting/useful applications of cohomology (and homological algebra in general) to probability and statistics, or information theory?
By "interesting/useful", I mean "not merely ...
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Constructing an independent uniform random variable from two independent ones
Does there exist a continuous (differentiable) function $h:[0,1]\times [0,1] \to [0,1]$ such that if $\alpha,\beta\in [0,1]$ are independent and uniformly distributed on $[0,1]$, the random variable $...
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Distance between distributions and distance of moments
Let's say I have a sequence of random variables $X_n$ such that $$\mathbf E X_n^k = \mathbf E X^k+O(a_k/\sqrt{n})\quad\text{for all }k\in\mathbb N,\tag{$\ast$}$$ where $X$ is a random variable of ...
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What m minimizes E(|m-X|^3) for a random variable X?
Let X be a random variable. Then E(|m-X|^1) is minimized when (as a function of m) when m is the median of X, and E(|m-X|^2) is minimized when m is the mean of x.
A couple weeks ago in a technical ...
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Rapid evaluation of multivariate normal integral
I'm implementing a model that requires me to numerically evaluate a multivariate normal integral of the following form
$$\int_{-\infty}^\infty \phi(z)\displaystyle\prod_{i=1}^N \Phi(a_iz+b_i) \, dz,$...
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Convergence of an empirical distribution w.r.t. the Hellinger distance
Let $P$ be a probability distribution on a finite set $\mathcal{X}$ and let $X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n$ be drawn i.i.d. according to $P$. Define the empirical distribution:
$\hat{P_n}(x) = \frac{1}{n} \...
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Expectation of minimum of correlated Gaussian
What is the order of the following expectation with respect to $n$?:
$$\mathbb{E}(\min_{1\leq i\leq n}|z_i|^2)$$
where
$$(z_1,...,z_n)^T\sim N(0,I+11^T), 1=(1,1,...,1)^T$$
I know that when $z_i$ are ...
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Minimum separation among $m$ random points on an $n$-dimensional unit sphere
Consider $m$ points $v_1, \ldots, v_m \in R^{n}$, which are uniformly distributed on the $n$-dimensional unit sphere $S^{n-1} = \{v:\|v\|_2 = 1\}$. Let the minimum separation be
$$
\rho = \min_{i,j\in{...
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disconnected or poorly connected graphs in sport ratings systems
I've briefly read about rating systems that provide rankings to players based only on their performance wrt other players, in the context of chess. (for example, elo). When there is a lot of ...
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Expected value of Bernoulli quadratic forms
Let $\mathbf{Y}\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$ be a symmetric matrix. Let $\mathbf{x}\in\mathbb{R}^n$ be random vectors with entries i.i.d. $\pm 1$ with equal probability. I'm interested in a lower bound ...
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First Table of Random Numbers
What was the first table of random numbers of any sort?
The best I can do is Tippett and Pearson's Random Sampling Numbers of 1927.
Can anybody identify an earlier table?
Thanks for any insight....
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Largest deviations for uniform order statistics
Let $n >0$.
Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be i.i.d. uniform random variable on $[0,1].$ Denote by $X^{(1)}\leq X^{(2)} \leq \cdots \leq X^{(n)}$ their order statistics, and write $\Delta^{(i)} = \vert X^{(...
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Distribution of the maximum of the norm of k-averages of n i.i.d. d-dimensional random vectors
Suppose $X_1, ... X_n$ are i.i.d. random vectors in $d$-dimensional space (i.e., $R^d$) with continuous centrally symmetric density function $f(\cdot)$ (i.e., symmetric with respect to the origin). ...
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"Fractional sampling" from a probability distribution
My question concerns an operation on probability distributions which has arisen in some applied research. It is well-defined mathematically (at least in a limited context), but I don't know how to ...
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Testing contrasts in statistics: Is this provably a hard problem, or not?
Scheffé's method for identifying statistically significant contrasts is widely known. A contrast among the means $\mu_i$, $i=1,\ldots,r$ of $r$ populations is a linear combination $\sum_{i=1}^r c_i \...
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Question from an economist: solving a model of traders' behavior with expectations about the future values of the variable they are currently optimizing
Motivation
I am an economist writing a paper for an academic finance journal. My paper is about the behavior of currency traders, who choose the price at which they will sell currency today, based on ...
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