Applied, computational and theoretical statistics: e.g. statistical inference, regression, time series, multivariate analysis, data analysis, Markov chain Monte Carlo, design of experiments, case studies.

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96 views

forward algorithm Hidden Markov Model

I am studying the the forward-backward algorithm used in Hidden Markov Models. I understand that that you are trying to propagate through a sequence (and the available states) to find the most ...
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1answer
73 views

Estimating the variance of error in empirical approximation to a distribution

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ be i.i.d. random variables in $\mathbb{R}$ with common cumulative distribution function (CDF) $F(x)$. The empirical approximation to $F(x)$ is defined as follows: ...
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1answer
72 views

What is known about the distribution of the errors in empirical approximation of a CDF?

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ be i.i.d. random variables in $\mathbb{R}$ with common cumulative distribution function (CDF) $F(x)$. The empirical approximation to $F(x)$ is defined as follows: ...
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0answers
57 views

Question in Wainwright's paper about signed support recovery in lasso

Sharp thresholds for high dimensional and noisy sparsity recovery using $l_1$ constrained quadratic programming (Lasso) This paper is about support recovery guarantees of the Lasso. I have an issue ...
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4answers
506 views

Are gaussians with different moments far in total variation distance?

If two Gaussians disagree on one moment, it seems like this should imply that they have a large variation distance--equivalently, if two Gaussians are close in variation distance it's hard for their ...
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1answer
60 views

Why does differencing create wide-sense stationary time series?

In time series analysis, a common assumption made is that the series is wide-sense stationary, ex. that it has time invariant mean and covariance. However, as this is often not the case in real life, ...
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0answers
57 views

Smallest distribution of points with genuinely different clusterings

An hierarchical clustering algorithm for (finite) sets of points in a given metric space is essentially determined by its linkage criterion, which defines the distance between arbitrary (finite) sets ...
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2answers
87 views

expectation of log(x+a) when X follows a beta distribution

Is there a closed form expression for the expectation of $\log(x+a)$ (with $a>0$, the case $a=0$ is obvious) when X follows a beta distribution?
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2answers
76 views

estimating variance of dependent normal distributed data

Let $X_{ij}$ with $1\leq i<j\leq n$ (that are $X_{12},\dots, X_{1n},\dots,X_{(n-1)n}$) be ${n \choose 2}$ identically normal distributed $N(0,\sigma^2)$ such that $ \text{corr}(X_{ij},X_{rs})=\rho ...
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2answers
91 views

Determine joint distribution from projections

Let $X=(X_1,\dots,X_d)$ be a random vector, and a.s. $X \in [0,1]^d$. Suppose that for every $a \in \mathbb{R}^d$, we know the probability distribution of the random variable $Y_a = <a,X>$. My ...
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0answers
104 views

MLRP of random variables and order statistics

Suppose we have $N$ independent random variables $X_1, \cdots, X_N$ drawn from $f_1 > \cdots > f_N$ where $f_i > f_j$ indicates that $f_i$ and $f_j$ satisfy the monotone likelihood ratio ...
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213 views

What kind of random matrices have rapidly decaying singular values?

I've been told that in machine learning it's common to compute the singular value decomposition of matrices in order to throw out all information in the matrix except that corresponding to, say, the ...
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1answer
56 views

ordinary least square and random projection

Let $X$ a $d \times T$ given matrix and $M$ a $n \times d$ random matrix (say i.i.d. centered coefficients). Define $Y=MX$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and $H=Y'(YY')^{-1}Y$ where $'$ denotes the transpose ...
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3answers
353 views

Deconvolution of sum of two random variables

Let $Z = X + c \cdot Y$ where $X$ and $Y$ are independent random variables drawn form the same distribution given by the pdf $g()$ and $0 < c < 1$ I have observations of $Z_i$'s and thus can ...
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1answer
164 views

How to perform Importance Sampling with Prior Information

Let us define a random variable $X$ with density function $p(x)$. We wish to calculate $\mathbb{E}[f(X)] = \int f(x)p(x)dx$. We can compute the expectation by Monte Carlo simulations as ...
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0answers
74 views

Fitting distribution to spatial data

I am studying a physical process generating data which projects nicely into two dimensions with non-negative values. Each process has a (projected) track of $x$-$y$ points -- see the image below. ...
2
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1answer
251 views

What are the Reasons for the Ambiguous Meaning of “Distribution” in Mathematics

The term "distribution" is commonly associated with statistics and, less commonly known, to generalized functions. Questions: what is known about the origin of the term in the two fields? are the ...
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1answer
216 views

Generating independent random variable from two correlated random variables

Suppose two random variables $X$ and $V$ are given. I am wondering what kind of condition we need to impose on joint distribution of $V$ and $X$ to make sure that there exists a random variable $Z$ ...
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0answers
160 views

Incoherence of the row/column span

Due to V.Chandrasekaran., et al‎ (p.11) : In general for any $k$-dimensional subspace of $A_{n×n}$ we have that: $$\sqrt{(k/n)} \leq incoherence(A)\leq 1$$ where the lower bound is achieved (for ...
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1answer
220 views

Sum of covariance matrix of products of dependent variables

Consider the sequences of random variables $\{X_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^n$, as well as the corresponding sequence of products, $\{X_i Y_i\}_{i=1}^n$. All $X_i$ share the same mean value, ...
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2answers
229 views

Estimate on gaussian distribution

Let X be an $\mathbb R^d$-valued random variable with distribution $N_d(0,\Sigma)$. I'm looking for a function $f$ such that $$P(|X_1|\leq M, |X_2|\leq M,\dots, |X_d|\leq M)\geq f(M),$$ and such that ...
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6answers
1k views

Is a fair lottery possible?

I'm trying to come up with a scheme for a lottery where each individual has roughly the same chance of becoming the winner, regardless of the number of tickets one holds. So no individual should have ...
14
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2answers
373 views

How to sample uniformly from singular matrices

I would like to uniformly sample from all singular $n$ by $n$ Bernoulli matrices (that is each entry is $1$ or $0$ with probability $1/2$). I could of course just sample from all $n$ by $n$ Bernoulli ...
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0answers
65 views

sufficient statistics and isometries

Let $(M,g)$ be an infinite dimensional statistical manifold with the Fisher information metric $g$. Is it true that any isometry on this manifold must correspond to a sufficient statistic?
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1answer
154 views

Consecutive Primes mod 3

Is anything known asymptotically about the binary "primes mod 3" sequence besides Dirichlet's result that 1 and 2 occur half of the time? For example, can you prove that it does not eventually cycle ...
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0answers
163 views

Maximization of a total variation distance subject to another total variation distance in Markov chain

Suppose two dependent random variables $X$ and $V$ from finite alphabets $\mathcal{V}$ and $\mathcal{X}$ with known joint and marginal distributions are given. Let $P_{XV}$ and $P_X$ and $P_V$ are the ...
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2answers
332 views

Inequality in information theory

I am reading the paper "chain independence and common information" (http://ttic.uchicago.edu/~yury/papers/independ.pdf). In this paper, an inequality is used several times (without proof) which looks ...
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0answers
103 views

Quantile convergence

Let $X^1,\dots,X^n$ be a sample of (not necessarily iid) random variables and denote $$F^n(x)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf 1_{X^i\leq x}$$ the empirical distribution function. Suppose that we know ...
4
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1answer
94 views

Weak ergodicity of nonhomogenous products of 0-1 matrices

Here is a question which probably has a negative answer, but I couldn't find any literature directly on it. Let $(A_n)$ be a sequence of rectangular 0-1 matrices (that is, the entries are restricted ...
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0answers
65 views

Monte carlo Method to estimate a proportion

I'd like to use Monte Carlo method to estimate a proportion and I'd like to be sure my idea is correct mathematically speaking. Let a pool full of red and blue balls. I'd like to estimate the ...
5
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1answer
103 views

Deviation bound for the maximum of the norm of Wiener process

Let $W(t)$ be an $n$-dimensional Wiener process. Denote by $\chi_n^2$ a chi-squared random variable with $n$ degrees of freedom. I have recently found the following inequality given without proof: $$ ...
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3answers
219 views

How do you call the problem of approximating a continuous distribution with a simple discrete distribution?

The following problem came up on the Mathematica forum as "Generating a list of integers that roughly satisfy a distribution": Given $n$, find $n$ integers (possibly with duplicates) whose ...
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1answer
117 views

Expected rank of players in a Bradley-Terry round-robin tournament

Let $[n]$=$\{1,\dots,n\}$ be a set of players in a round-robin tournament. Each player $i$ has an associated skill parameter, $\lambda_{i}$, and the probability that player $i$ defeats player $j$ is ...
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1answer
109 views

How do you calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference of 2 values? [closed]

Need to know how to calculate a 95% confidence interval of the difference between 2 values. Information: ...
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88 views

What is the range of a positive random variable after whitening?

Let ${\bf x}\in\mathbb R^N$ be a positive multivariate random variable, i.e. $$x_i\in [0,\infty).$$ What is the range after whitening, i.e. the range of ${\bf y} = \sqrt{C}^{-1}{\bf x}$ with the ...
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0answers
65 views

Eigen value distribution of autocorrelated Wishart matrix

Suppose the matrix W is constructed as $W=XX^T$ where $X_i(t) = \phi_i X_i(t-1) + a_i(t)$, and $a_i(t)$ ~ $N(0,1)$. I am interested in knowing the eigen value distribution of W. My google search on ...
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2answers
215 views

Proof of Von Neumann's debiasing algorithm

Assume you have a source of random binary information that has a bias but no correlation between consecutive bits. John von Neumann describes an algorithm to debias the random source and output a ...
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0answers
56 views

Stochastic process inference from partial observations

Consider a set $U$. My signal is a piece-wise constant "function" $Sig: t \mapsto s$, i.e. the signal at time $t$ equals to some subset $s \subset U$. One can see $Sig(t)$ as a stochastic process. ...
3
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1answer
139 views

Equivalent method for maximum likelihood estimation of covariance parameters

My goal is to estimate the parameters of a covariance matrix $\Omega$, by maximizing the following log-likelihood function: $$\log L(\vec\tau, \rho, \sigma \mid W, X) = -m\ln(\left | \Omega \right |) ...
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2answers
287 views

What is the maximum entropy distribution on the natural numbers?

On the reals $\mathbb{R}$, the maximum entropy distribution with a given mean and variance is the Gaussian distribution. Let $\mu, \sigma > 0$. What is the maximum entropy distribution on the ...
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3answers
230 views

Online estimation of covariance matrix

I am trying to dynamically estimate the (low-dimensional) covariance matrix ${\mathbb E}[{\bf x}_t{\bf x}_t^\top]$ of a stream of data points ${\bf x}_t\in{\mathbb R}^N$ online, without any memory. ...
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0answers
105 views

Uniform Law Of Iterated Logarithm for VC classes

Kenneth Alexander proved a uniform Law Of Iterated logarithm for Vapnik-Chervonenkis classes in the article Probability Inequalities for Empirical Processes and a Law of the Iterated Logarithm (Ann. ...
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0answers
57 views

Small ball probabilities for functions of correlated normals

Let $f : \mathbb{R}^k \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ and let $X$ be distributed k-dimensional normal with mean $0$ (with "arbitrary" covariance matrix). I am looking for references with bounds of the form: ...
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1answer
662 views

Gini Coefficient and Renyi Entropy

Gini coefficient (aka Gini Index) is a quantity used in economics to describe income inequality. It is 0 for uniformly distributed income, and approaches 1 when all income is in hands of one ...
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1answer
126 views

Concentration rates for the posterior distribution

Sanov's theorem and Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz's inequality tell us how fast the empirical distribution concentrates around the true underlying probabilty distribution. What is known about the ...
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2answers
194 views

Bounding the tail of an average using the the tail of individual members

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ be an i.i.d. sequence of $n$ positive random variables with mean $E[X_1]=\mu_X<\infty$ and the second moment $E[X_1^2]=\infty$. I am interested in upper-bounding ...
4
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1answer
145 views

Statistical models in terms of families of random variables

A statistical model is a function $P : \Theta \to \Delta(X)$, where $\Theta$ is a parameter space, and $\Delta(X)$ is the set of probability measures on a state space $X$. Suppose that $\Theta$ and ...
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1answer
196 views

Size of KL-divergence neighbourhoods

I am new here. I was reading another post here and this got me wondering what can be said about the size of the following kl divergence neighborhoods. Consider these two kl-divergence neighbourhood ...
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1answer
117 views

Forms of multivariate CLT [closed]

I am looking for a good reference for differnt kinds of multivariate central limit theorems. I was wondering how far the i.i.d. condition of the standard multivariate clt can be relaxed, as in can the ...
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37 views

Renormalised Pearson correlation for multivariate alpha-stable distributions

Assume we have a multivariate $\alpha$-stable distribution $\vec{X}$. Is there a way to define a renormalised version of the Pearson correlation coefficient for $X_i$ and $X_j$? For example, assuming ...