Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

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How to compute the expectation of $\frac{Y^L}{Y^L + (N-Y)^L}$ where Y is Binomial(n,p)

How to compute the expectation of $\frac{Y^L}{Y^L + (N-Y)^L}$ where $Y$ is Binomial(n,p)? If it is not exactly computable, then are their ways to approximate this qty?
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1answer
71 views

Parameter estimation using bayesian update on moduli space?

Scientists take a set of data points, say in ${\mathbb R}^2$, and, assuming that this data should fit a polynomial of degree $d$ (or an exponential, etc.), they estimate parameters. I would think ...
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3answers
677 views

Compactness of the set of densities of equivalent martingale measures

Consider an incomplete market $(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)$ driven by a semimartingale $S=(S_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$. Under the no free lunch under vanishing risk (NFLVR) assumption, the set $\mathcal ...
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46 views

Tail for the integral of a diffusion process

I would like to compute the following tail, $$ \mathbb{P}\left(\int_{0}^{T} f(X_t)\mathrm{dt}>x\right), $$ assuming $$ \mathbb{P}[f(X_t)>x] = x^{-\alpha} \log(x), $$ and $X$ is a diffusion ...
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1answer
61 views

On the moments of Lévy processes

For a Brownian motion $B_t$, the evolution of the moments with $t$ obeys the simple rule: $$\mathbb{E}[|B_t|^p] = \kappa_p |t|^{p/2},$$ with $\kappa_p<\infty$. The proof only requires to remark ...
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1answer
34 views

Concurrency related problems in $n$ independent, parallel $M/M/1$ queues

Model: Consider $n$ independent, parallel $M/M/1$ queues with identical arrival rates $\lambda$ and service rates $\mu$. For each $M/M/1$ queue, we use the FCFS (First Come First Served) discipline ...
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1answer
381 views

A (strictly) positively correlated metric space-valued random variables.

Real-valued random variables $X$ and $Y$ are "positively correlated" if $\mathbb{E}[XY]\geq \mathbb{E}X \mathbb{E}Y$, with the intuition that "the larger $X$ is the more probable it is that $Y$ is ...
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253 views

How similar are discrete stable RVs to their continuous analogues?

The generalized central limit theorem of Gnedenko-Levy describes the asymptotic behavior of a sum of IIDRVs which may not have finite mean or variance. Only a small class of limit laws can be ...
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1answer
119 views

Is there any result for upper bounding the tail of a sum of r.v.s by another tail (with a different threshold)?

Suppose $X_i$s are independent random variables. We can make assumptions about $X_i$, e.g., $X_i\in [0,1]$. Let $X=\sum_i X_i$ and $u=E[X]$. Is there any result of the following type (relating one ...
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572 views

Intuition of law of iterated logarithm?

Let $X_i$ be iid random variables with $EX_i = 0$ and $Var X_i=1$ and $S_n=X_1+\cdots+X_n$. Then the law of the iterated logarithm says almost everywhere we have ...
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73 views

Probability of differently loaded dice summing to a value

I have a real world problem that boils down to the following: I'm playing dice. I have $n \approx o(10)$ differently biased die. The probability of the $i^{th}$ die showing $x_i$ is given by ...
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1answer
119 views

Transition probabilities in coupled Markov chains

I know that for a continuous-time Markov chain, the probability of transition from time $0$ to $t$ is given by $P(t)=e^{Q(t)t}$. I have a system of $N$ interdependent continuous-time Markov chains ...
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1answer
72 views

Cramér-Wold device with limited angle and independence assumption

Let $X$ be a random vector taking values in $\mathbb R^2$ with probability density $p(x) = p_1(x_1)p_2(x_2)$, i.e. the components of $X$ are independent. Let $V$ be an open set in $\mathbb S^1$, the ...
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1answer
64 views

Clique factorization

I'm reading about Clique factorization in wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibbs_random_field#Clique_factorization but I'm unable to understand this: What is $X_C$ here? Ok I understood ...
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67 views

Diameter of $n$-unit-vector closed scribble

Suppose one creates a random, closed, likely self-crossing polygon from $n$ unit-length vectors arranged head-to-tail, randomly oriented except for the requirement that their sum is zero (so the ...
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67 views

Fundamental theorem of calculus for iterated stochastic integrals

I'm trying to find the rate (or a bound for it) with which an iterated integral of the type $$\int_{-h}^0 \int_{-h}^{t} A_s d B_s A_t d B_t$$ converges to zero (in probability/distribution) for $h ...
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132 views

bound for $|E[\frac{X}{Y}]−\frac{E[X]}{E[Y]}|$

Is there some bound for $|E[X/Y]−E[X]/E[Y]|$ ? Here $X$ and $Y$ are both summation of a fixed number of Bernoulli random variables and a constant that is >0, which is to guarantee that the denominator ...
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1answer
131 views

Properties of the time integral of Wiener process

Let $W_t$ be a Wiener process and consider the time integral $$ X_T:= \int_0^T W_t dt $$ It is often mentionend in literature that $X_T$ is a Gaussian with mean 0 and variance $T^3/6$. I am ...
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0answers
183 views

A generalized urn-ball matching problem; Complicated combinatoric/probabilistic limit

I'm looking for a generalization to the urn-ball matching problem. As a reminder of what I've got in mind, here's the simple version: Randomly assign (with replacement) $N$ balls to $M$ urns. ...
2
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1answer
80 views

Non-asymptotic large deviations for a convex set

Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be $n$ i.i.d random variables taking values in a Polish vector space $\mathcal{X}$ and with (Borel) probability distribution $\mu$. For any convex, compact $\Gamma \subset ...
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78 views

Is there inverse FFT algorithm for Fourier transform of a integer-valued random variable?

In many applications, it is possible to derive an explicit expression for the Fourier transform of a random variable $X$ $$\varphi (\theta ) = \sum\limits_{n = 0}^\infty {{p_n}} {e^{in\theta }}$$ ...
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116 views

What is the early history of the concepts of probabilistic independence and conditional probability/expectation?

In the 1738 second edition of The Doctrine of Chances, de Moivre writes, Two Events are independent, when they have no connexion one with the other, and that the happening of one neither forwards ...
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73 views

Finite Volume 1D Anderson Tight Binding Model

My question is about bounds on the number of eigenvalues in a microscopic interval for the random Schrodinger operator on $\mathbb{Z}_n$ for $n \in \mathbb{N}$. For my question, these are the ...
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2answers
87 views

Bounds for the fat tail after trimming the mean?

I am interested in the quantity $$f(X,t) = \int_t^\infty\negthinspace x\ p(x)\ dx,$$ where $p$ is a probability distribution for a positive variable $X$. 1) Does this quantity $f(X,t)$ have a name? ...
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2answers
951 views

What is a Gaussian measure?

Let $X$ be a topological affine space. A Gaussian measure on $X$ is characterized by the property that its finite-dimensional projections are multivariate Gaussian distributions. Is there a direct ...
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37 views

A counterpart of Karhunen theorem

According to the Karhunen theorem, if the correlation function of a process $X(t)$ can be represented as $$ R(t,s)= \int_{\Lambda} f(t, \lambda) \overline{f(s, \lambda)}d\nu(\lambda) $$ then the ...
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130 views

Probability generating function zero implies random variable is infinite

Let $V$ be a random variable supported on the nonnegative integers (including $\infty$) and $f(x) = \mathbf E x^V$ be the probability generating function. In our model $V$ is the number of visits to ...
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1answer
179 views

What is “tilting” in the context of large deviations?

I have seen references to the "tilting method" in the theory of large deviations. Is there a simple explanation of what this is, exactly?
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13k views

What are the big problems in probability theory?

Most branches of mathematics have big, sexy famous open problems. Number theory has the Riemann hypothesis and the Langlands program, among many others. Geometry had the Poincaré conjecture for a long ...
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84 views

Invariant measure of Euler-Maruyama Discretisation of an Ito diffusion

Let $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ be a diffusion process with dynamics governed by the stochastic differential equation \begin{equation} dX_t = b(X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t)dW_t, ~~ X_0 = x_0, \end{equation} where ...
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236 views

Expected value with a kronecker product and Gaussian distributional assumption

What is the expected value, $ \mathbb{E}\left[ I \otimes \left( \operatorname{diag}(ZZ^T\mathbf{1}) - ZZ^T\right)\right]$ where $Z \sim N(0, \sigma^2I) $? The kronecker product is where the confusion ...
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Whether r.v. with p.g.f. $\exp [\sum\limits_{i = 1}^\infty {{q_i}({z^i}} - 1)]$ is overdispersion?

When discrete r.v. $X$ is not Poisson distributed and ${\rm{Var}}X,EX < \infty $, I want to know whether r.v. $X$ with p.g.f. $\exp [\sum\limits_{i = 1}^\infty {{q_i}({z^i}} - 1)],({q_i} \in ...
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1answer
84 views

M/M/1 Queue with probability of new customer leaving [on hold]

I'm looking at a M/M/1 queue system and trying to show that $\{M_t\}_{t\geq}0$, the number of clients in the system, is a birth-death process. In the simplest of cases this is true if $\lambda_i = ...
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427 views

measure with given push-forwards

Let $X,Y$ be locally compact spaces (in my specific case, they are locally compact groups). Suppose that we are given a measure $\mu$ on $X$ and a finite number of quotient maps ...
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1answer
155 views

Limit of distance between two random points in a unit-radius $n$-sphere

This is a companion contrast to the earlier analogous question for unit $n$-cubes, where the answer (provided by several respondents) is $\infty$ . What is the limit, as $n \to \infty$, of the ...
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1answer
207 views

How to minimize $-\sum p_b \ln{p_b}$?

Consider multisets of the form $A = \{a_1,\dots,a_n\}$ of integers. Let $q = P(a_i = a_j)$ when $i$ and $j$ are chosen independently and uniformly from $\{1,\dots, n\}$. Let $B$ be the set of ...
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1answer
79 views

Singular distributions: Applications and Instances

Singular distributions are special mathematical objects. They have an interesting property of not having a density function, defined on a set with Lebesgue measure zero. Cantor distribution is the ...
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60 views

On Flajolet's analytic urn model: a unified approach or just an interesting trick?

Recently I'm reading Flajolet's work on analytic urn models. In around 2006 He introduced a new analytical method that can give exact solutions to many classical urn models in a unified way. For a ...
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113 views

Heat kernel and Wiener measure

A theorem by Barry Simon says that for arbitrary open sets $\Omega\subset \mathbb{R}^n$, we have $$[\exp(t\Delta_{\Omega}^D)](x,y) = \mu_{x,y,t}\lbrace \omega \text{ } \vert \text{ } \omega(s) \in ...
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76 views

number of times Brownian motion hits boundaries

Any experts here please direct me to some appropriate keywords that I can search for. Consider a Brownian motion constrained to an upper and lower boundaries. Let's say I want to know that how many ...
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vector-matrix notation and expectation of matrix and Hermitian product [closed]

Let $\textbf{h} \in \mathbb{C}^{N\times 1}$, $\textbf{a} \in \mathbb{C}^{N\times 1}$, $\textbf{b} \in \mathbb{C}^{N\times 1}$ and $\textbf{c} \in \mathbb{C}^{N\times 1}$. The variable $h_i$ is defined ...
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2answers
201 views

Limit of distance between two random points in a unit $n$-cube

What is the limit, as $n \to \infty$, of the expected distance between two points chosen uniformly at random within a unit edge-length hypercube in $\mathbb{R}^n$? For $n=1$, the average ...
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62 views

Books and papers on differential equation method [closed]

I wanted to understand the differential equations method for analyzing stochastic sequences. Is there a good book/ papers that provide a gentle survey this topic with a good number of examples? A good ...
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1answer
384 views

Does anyone know an example of non-separable $L^1$ of a probability space?

It is easy to give examples of non-separable $L^p$ spaces by considering a measure on a big space. If one adds the condition that the space has to have total measure 1, the problem is not as easy. ...
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86 views

Upper bound for $r_{0}(n)$ through probabilities

Assume Goldbach's conjecture. Then for every integer $n>1$ there exists a non negative integer $r$ such that both $n-r$ and $n+r$ are primes. For a given $N$, let's denote by $r_{0}(N)$ the ...
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32 views

Bounding Rayleigh quotioent for stochastic matrix

Suppose you have an irreducible, stochastic matrix $A$ with left Perron-Frobenius eigenvector $v$ (corresponding to the eigenvalue $1$), and suppose the next largest eigenvalue for $A$ is $\lambda$. ...
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251 views

Pros and cons of probability model for permutations

I am studying probability model of random permetuation Let $b(n; k)$ denote the number of permutations of {1,...,n} with precisely k inversions ($inv(\pi)$). The analytic approach was considered by ...
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43 views

Quantiles moments and Convergence

QUESTION: Let $F$ be an absolutely continuous distribution function with density $f$, and $F_{n}$ be its nth empirical distribution. Suppose that $t\in (0,1)$ is constant. Is true the convergence ...
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1answer
74 views

Convergence of random variables in LP preserved under conditioning on sub sigma field

Is anyone aware of a result which states that convergence of random variables in $\mathbb L^p$ are preserved under conditioning on sub-sigma fields? I'm new to probability/measure theory, and trying ...
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37 views

Derive concentration bound for the derivative

It that true to conclude that if a random $f(z)$ is a sub-Gaussian random variable for a constant value of z, its derivative $f'(z)|_{z=k}$ with respect to variable $z$ is also sub-Gaussian? In ...