Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
8,630
questions
4
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3
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198
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Expected distance of nearest matching pair in the game of pairs
Recently I was playing several rounds of the game of pairs with my children. I was surprised that almost every time, one matching pair was adjacent (either next to each other in a row, or vertically). ...
0
votes
1
answer
152
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Shannon problem
Since a few days, I try in my research to model / formalize a source of Shannon a little weird, and I can't do it at all. First of all, I explain to you its operating principle and then I describe it ...
0
votes
0
answers
138
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Statistical models of functions
I did a quick literature search and found nothing on "statistical models of functions". Let me explain what I am looking for. Given the category of Sets and Function, we have arbitrary functions ...
1
vote
1
answer
326
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Expected values of two non-negative, integer-valued random variables related to an urn problem
Consider an urn containing $c$ distinguishable balls, $\alpha$ of which are red, $\beta$ of which are blue, and $\gamma$ of which are green, and $\alpha+\beta+\gamma=c$. We assume $\alpha,\beta,\gamma&...
4
votes
1
answer
369
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Is a Gaussian measure on a Hilbert space determined by the coarser topology induced by the covariance operator?
I have a basic question about Gaussian measures on a Hilbert space:
Let $\mu$ be a non-degenerate Gaussian measure on a Hilbert space $(H_0,\left\langle \cdot,\cdot \right\rangle_0)$. Then the ...
2
votes
0
answers
391
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How can we treat the generator of a discrete-time Markov chain as the generator of a Markov-jump process?
In the popular paper Weak Convergence and Optimal Scaling of Random Walk Metropolis Algorithms by Roberts, Gelman and Gilks, the authors state (see below) that "in the Skorokhod topology, it does not ...
3
votes
1
answer
182
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Is there a coupling that induces a given coupling via a transition kernel?
Let $X,Y$ be two measurable spaces, $\mu,\nu$ two probability measures on $X$, and $\kappa$ a transition kernel from $X$ to $Y$.
Define $\tilde\mu(dy)=\int_X\kappa(dy|x)\mu(dx)$ and $\tilde\nu(dy)=\...
12
votes
1
answer
555
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Mode of a sum of Bernoulli random variables
Let $S_n=\tau_1+\cdots+\tau_n$ be a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables such that $\mathbb{P}(\tau_i=1)=p_i$. Is it true that the mode of $S_n$ is either its mean rounded up or rounded down?
3
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0
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152
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Probability distribution from equidistribution - I
Pick a random pair $(a,b)\in\mathbb Z_n^2\backslash\{0,0\}$. Denote $N_r(a,b)$ to be minimum $\ell_r$ norm of vector $(x,y)$ as $(x,y)$ ranges over all non-zero integral solutions to $(x,y)\equiv t(a,...
3
votes
1
answer
115
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Probability density from standard domain - I
Pick $x+iy$ at random with respect to hyperbolic measure from $\{z:|z|\geq1,|\mathcal R(z)|\leq\frac12\}$. What does the probability distribution function of $\frac1{\sqrt y}$ look like?
3
votes
2
answers
180
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Is the covariance of squares always bounded from below by two times the covariance?
I came across the following inequality in one of my calculations ($X,Y$ are centered random variables):
$$\operatorname{E}(X^2Y^2)-\operatorname{E}(X^2)\operatorname{E}(Y^2) \geq 2 \operatorname{E}(...
2
votes
1
answer
144
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Generalization of Komlós–Major–Tusnády Approximation
The Komlós–Major–Tusnády Approximation (see Wikipedia) considers the sum of uniform variables in $(0,1)$. There are also version where instead the sum of equiprobable $0/1$ variables is used ($p=1/2$)....
4
votes
1
answer
385
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Expectation of exponential of a function of independent Rademacher r.v.'s involving the error function
Let $Z,Z'\in\{-1,1\}^n$ be two independent vectors of i.i.d. Rademacher r.v.'s, where $1\leq n \leq d$ are two integers ($d\gg 1$). I am trying to get an upper bound on
$$
\mathbb{E}_{ZZ'}\left[ \exp\...
6
votes
1
answer
1k
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Why the Fisher information matrix is equal to the Hessian matrix of the Kullback–Leibler distance at the true parameter?
I'm reading 《Algebraic geometry and statistical learning theory》.My problem is why the Fisher information matrix is equal to the Hessian matrix of the Kullback–Leibler distance at the true parameter?...
4
votes
0
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146
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Exchangeable Bernoulli random variables with bounded summation implies negative correlation?
Let $\big\{X_1, X_2, ..., X_n \big\}$ be $n$ jointly exchangeable Bernoulli random variables, i.e., exchanging the order of these random variables does not change the joint distribution. If we know ...
3
votes
2
answers
259
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Probability of one species reaching zero before the other in a Markov process on a 2d lattice
$\textbf{Background}$: Say we've got a two-variable system of stochastic chemical reactions, with quantities $\vec{x}(t) = (x_1(t),x_2(t)) \in \mathbb{N}^2$ evolving according to the following system, ...
5
votes
3
answers
4k
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Distribution of the individual coordinates of a uniform random vector on a high-dimensional sphere
Let $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be a random vector uniformly distributed on the $n$-dimensional sphere of radius $R > 0$. Intuitively, i think that for large $p$ every coordinate $X_i$ is normally ...
0
votes
0
answers
84
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If $(Y_n)_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ and $(N_t)_{t\ge0}$ are stochastic processes, what is the filtration generated by $\left(Y_{N_t}\right)_{t\ge0}$?
Let
$(\Omega,\mathcal A)$ and $(E,\mathcal E)$ be measurable spaces
$(Y_n)_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be a $(E,\mathcal E)$-valued stochastic process on $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$
$(N_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a $\mathbb ...
11
votes
1
answer
1k
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Maximal inequality for the average of i.i.d. random variables
Let $Z_i$ be i.i.d. random variables with $\mathbb{E}[Z_i] = 0$ and $\mathbb{E}|Z_i|^p< \infty$ for $p=1,2,3,\cdots$. I am looking for the following type of estimate if possible, and it is not like ...
1
vote
1
answer
144
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Is there a transient graph whose spectral dimension two?
Let $G = (V(G), E(G))$ be an infinite connected simple graph.
Let $((S_n)_n, (P^x)_{x \in V(G)})$ be the simple random walk on $G$.
Let $p_n (x,y) = P^x (S_n = y)$.
A spectral dimension of $G$ is ...
1
vote
0
answers
134
views
Construction of Feller's pseudo-poisson process
Let
$(\Omega,\mathcal A,\operatorname P)$ be a probability space
$(E,\mathcal E)$ be a measurable space
$(Y_n)_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be a $(E,\mathcal E)$-valued time-homogeneous Markov chain on $(\...
5
votes
4
answers
362
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Concentration of closed random walks
Consider a random walk $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ where $P(X_i=+1)=P(X_i=-1)=1/2$ with $n$ large. By Chernoff's bound we know that, for example, $\sum_{i=1}^{n/2} X_i=O(\sqrt{n})$ with high probability.
...
-2
votes
1
answer
47
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Using common samples to numerically estimate pairwise equality of three random variables
Let $X,Y,Z$ be three discrete random variables which I can numerically sample. I need to numerically estimate the probability that $X=Y$ and the probability that $X=Z$. I would like to know whether ...
3
votes
0
answers
162
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Asymptotic behaviour of principal eigenfunctions and large deviations
Dear Math Overflowers,
I am currently interested in a particular problem involving Large Deviations. I am only going to talk about the PDE side of the problem, but I'll be happy to provide more ...
2
votes
0
answers
214
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Random walk and comparing sums of Exponential random variables
Let $\sigma$ be the time a nearest neighbor random walk started at 1 that has probability $p>1/2$ of moving left reaches $0$. Let $\sigma'$ be an independent copy of $\sigma$. Let $(X_k)_1^\infty$ ...
5
votes
1
answer
911
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Largest eigenvalues of a (random) correlation matrix?
I am recently studying on eigenvalues of a (random) correltion matrix. For a $N\times N$ correlation matrix (with a given meaning of randomness), its (1st, 2nd, etc.) eigenvalues have some ...
2
votes
0
answers
53
views
Sufficient condition for square root fluctuations of an ergodic sequence
Suppose I have a random sequence $\mathbf{X}=\{X_n\}_{n\in\mathbb{Z}}\subset \mathbb{R}^{\mathbb{Z}}$ that is ergodic with respect to translations. I am interested in a sufficient condition on $\...
0
votes
1
answer
73
views
Expected sum of chosen coordinates in a random subset of a Hamming hypercube
Let $S$ = $\{v_1, v_2, ..., v_n\}$ denote a random subset of a Hamming hypercube of dimension $d$, where $n = |S|$ and $n \leq 2^d$. If $v_i$ = $\langle x^i_1x^i_2... x^i_d\rangle$ for all $i \in [1,n]...
6
votes
2
answers
261
views
Nonlinear boolean functions
Let $\mathbb{F}_2=\{0,1\}$ be the field with two elements. I wonder if there is any known algorithm/construction that, given any $n\geq 1$, returns a boolean function $f:\mathbb{F}^n_2\rightarrow \...
2
votes
2
answers
2k
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Sum of independent random walks
Given two independent random walks $S$ and $S'$ with different distributions for the random variables $X_1$ and $X_1'$, I am interested in studying the conditions that make their sum either a ...
1
vote
1
answer
136
views
Generalization of inverse transform sampling
If X is a random variable over an arbitrary alphabet, is there a (deterministic) function f() such that X = f(U), where U is a uniform random variable over the unit-interval?
6
votes
2
answers
551
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Probability of at least two of $n$ independent events occurring subject to some conditions
Given a set of independent Bernoulli random variables $\{x_1, \dots, x_n\}$, let $p = \sum_{0<i\leq n}\Pr[x_i = 1]$ and $X=\sum_{0<i\leq n} x_i$. We know that for any $i$, we have $\Pr[x_i = 1]\...
7
votes
1
answer
245
views
Collecting proofs of the birth of the giant component
I want to collect different proofs of Erdös-Rényi result on the double jump of the largest connected component on $G(n,p)$ (or in $G(n,M)$.
I know the original proof of Erdös-Rényi, the proof that ...
1
vote
1
answer
89
views
gaussian isoperimetric result for minimal measure under translation
Consider two spherical Gaussian distributions in $\mathbb{R}^n$, $A = \mathcal{N}(x, I)$ and $B=\mathcal{N}(y, I)$ where the difference in means is $\delta = y - x$.
Let $S \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ be a ...
4
votes
0
answers
235
views
What happens in the martingale CLT if I norm by the conditional variance instead?
TLDR: I'm a statistician (bear with me!) trying to use the martingale CLT but I only can estimate the conditional variance instead of the unconditional one. Can I do anything to get a CLT with norming ...
2
votes
1
answer
379
views
References for Hellinger distance/affinity involving mixture distributions
For two continuous probability distributions $F,G$ and their densities, $f,g$, the (squared) Hellinger distance/affinity is given by $d^2_H(F,G)=1-\int_{\mathbb{R}} \sqrt{fg}~dx$. Suppose that $f,g$ ...
2
votes
1
answer
263
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The effect of random projections on matrices
Let $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$ be a given normal matrix, i.e. $A^TA=AA^T$. Let $P_s\in\mathbb{R}^n$ be a random projection matrix to an $s$-dimensional subspace in $\mathbb{R}^n$.
Suppose $\frac{A+...
3
votes
1
answer
234
views
Concentration of a modified random walk
Let $\varepsilon$ be a number in $(0, 1)$, consider the following random walk on the real line $X^{(0)}, X^{(1)}, \dots$, where
$X^{(0)}=0$
If $X^{(t)} > 0$, then with probability $.5$, $X^{(t+1)...
8
votes
3
answers
252
views
Random reflections unexpectedly produce banded distributions
Start with $p_1$ a random point on the origin-centered unit circle $C$.
At step $i$, select a random point $q_i$ on $C$, and a random mirror line
$M_i$ through $q_i$, and reflect $p_i$ in $M_i$ to ...
2
votes
0
answers
130
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Open problems in Monte Carlo Simulation [closed]
I want to know some open problems in Monte Carlo Simulation, which is being studied or in a stalemate.
Could you please give me some advice? Thanks a alot
5
votes
1
answer
397
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Random pairs of commuting permutations
Let $\Omega_n \subseteq \mathrm{Sym}(n)^4$ be the set of all $4$-tuples $(\sigma_1,\sigma_2,\tau_1,\tau_2)$ of permutations of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$ such that $\sigma_j \tau_k = \tau_k \sigma_j$ for each ...
2
votes
1
answer
282
views
Gaussian sum VS Brownian motion
Given independent Gaussian $d$ dimensional vectors $G_i$,
Let $ \sigma^2_n=\mathbb{E}(\sum_{i \le n} G_i) \cdot (\sum_{i \le n} G_i)^T$. $||\sigma_n^2||$ is norm of $\sigma_n^2$.
Is there a $d$-...
4
votes
2
answers
392
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Effect of perturbing the atoms of a measure on the Wasserstein distance
Let $(X,d)$ be a metric space, $x_1,\ldots,x_N\in X$ and $x_1',\ldots,x_N'\in X$ be atoms, and $G=\sum_{i=1}^Np_i\delta_{x_i}$, $G'=\sum_{i=1}^Np_i'\delta_{x_i}$, and $G''=\sum_{i=1}^Np_i'\delta_{x_i'}...
6
votes
3
answers
466
views
Randomly picking $k$ members of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$
Every day, I randomly pick a sample consisting of $k$ members of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$ where $k\leq n$. I stop as soon as every number of $\{1,\ldots,n\}$ has been picked at least once. Let $S$ be the ...
2
votes
1
answer
65
views
Lyapunov-type function in a non locally-compact space and boundedness of the average
Set-up and question.
Let $\mathcal{X}$ be a complete separable metric space which is not locally-compact. Let $V: \mathcal{X} \to [0; +\infty]$ be a function and $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ a Markov process in $...
2
votes
2
answers
126
views
Spectral decomposition of a combinatorial matrix/Random walks on $s$-sets
$\newcommand{\Z}{\mathbb{Z}}
\newcommand{\J}{\mathcal{J}}
\newcommand{\la}{\lambda}
\newcommand{\1}{\mathbf{1}}
\newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}}$
Take any $n\in[3;\infty]$. Here and in what follows, $[k;\...
5
votes
0
answers
1k
views
Asymptotic behavior of row sums in 2-d array of random variables
Set-up. Let $f : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{N}$ be increasing. For each $m \in [0,1]$, consider an infinite two-dimensional array of random variables, where row $n$ has $f(n)$ variables:
$B^m_{1,1}$ $B^...
3
votes
0
answers
321
views
Random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with "sticky" origin
Let $P_i$, $N_i$, and $Z_i$, $i\in\mathbb{N}$ be r.v.'s with the $P_i$, $N_i$, and $Z_i$ being identically distributed with known pdf's $f_P$, $f_N$, and $f_Z$, respectively; and with no dependence ...
2
votes
0
answers
116
views
An Incorrect Construction of the Ito Integral
Let $B_t$ be a Brownian motion defined on the interval $[0,T]$, with underlying (filtered) probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\{\mathcal{F}_t\},\mathbb{P})$. Call a function $f:[0,T]\times\Omega\...
3
votes
1
answer
331
views
Eigenvalues of random matrix conditional on positive definiteness
Consider the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, considered as a probability measure $\mu$ on the space of real symmetric matrices. Let $\mu|PD$ denote this measure conditioned on the event that the matrix ...