Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

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2
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1answer
107 views

Weak convergence of probability measures on weak versus strong dual

The space of temperate distributions $S'(\mathbb{R}^d)$ is often equipped with the weak-$\ast$ or with the strong topology. When defining the notion of a probability measure on $S'(\mathbb{R}^d)$, ...
5
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0answers
203 views

Squaring random Schwartz distributions

Let $\mu$ denote the centered Gaussian measure on $S'(\mathbb{R}^d)$ with covariance $$ \mathbb{E} [\phi(f)\phi(g)]=\int_{\mathbb{R}^d} \frac{\overline{\widehat{f}(\xi)} ...
6
votes
2answers
122 views

Tail sigma-algebra of a branching random walk

I am looking for any known results about the tail sigma-algebra of a branching random walk. To be specific, let $T$ be the nodes of an infinite binary tree rooted at $r \in T$. Let $\{X_t\})_{t \in ...
4
votes
1answer
106 views

Estimating the distribution of minimal hamming distances within a set of strings?

Is their an efficient mathematical way to estimate the distribution of minimal hamming distances for a set of random strings of length 8 over a 4-letter alphabet? E.g. given a set of 100-10,000 ...
12
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2answers
384 views

The power of two random choices with pairwise independence

Throw $n$ balls into $n$ bins, and let $X_n$ be the max load. That is the number of balls in the fullest bin. It is known that if the balls are thrown uniformly and independently at random then ...
0
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1answer
108 views

Probability Content of a random ball in R^n

As a follow up to this question, concerning this paper: Given random variables $X_1,\ldots,X_N,X_q:\Omega\rightarrow\mathbb{R}^d$, where $X_1,\ldots,X_N$ are independent and identical distributed. ...
8
votes
1answer
293 views

Transitive closure of balanced mass transport in Z (move to close)

Given two atomic measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ on $\mathbb{Z}$, write $\mu \sim \nu$ iff there exist countable decompositions $\mu = \mu_1 + \mu_2 + \cdots$ and $\nu = \nu_1 + \nu_2 + \cdots$ along with ...
12
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1answer
388 views

Natural probability on integers

This is a follow-up to this classical question asked recently here: we know (e.g. using the second Borel-Cantelli Lemma) that no probability measure on $\mathbb{Z}$ has the property that $n\mathbb{Z}$ ...
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0answers
75 views

Upper bound involving random orthogonal projection

Let $R$ be an $n\times N$ random matrix with i.i.d. standard Gaussian entries, $n<N$, and let $M:=(RR^T)^{-1/2}R$. Let $u,v\in \mathbb{R}^N$ non-random and s.t. $u^Tv=0$ and $\|u\|>\|v\|$. I ...
2
votes
2answers
77 views

Moment problem for discrete distributions

Let $x_1, \dots, x_N \in \mathbb R$ and consider the discrete distribution $\mu := \frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^N \delta_{x_i}$, where $\delta_x$ denotes the Dirac measure, i.e. for any measurable set $B ...
16
votes
3answers
578 views

Existence of a “quasi-uniform” probablility distribution on $\mathbb{Z}$

Does there exist a probability distribution on $\mathbb{Z}$ such that for every integer $n\geq 1$, the probability that a random integer $x$ is divisible by $n$ equals $1/n$? Henry Cohn has an ...
-2
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1answer
106 views

If $(X_n+Y_n)$ has bounded variance, is the same true for $(X_n)$ and $(Y_n)$? [closed]

let $(X_n)$ and $(Y_n)$ be two sequences of random variables defined on the same probability space such that the variance of all components $X_n$, $Y_n$ is finite and the sequence of variances of ...
1
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0answers
64 views

Does the expected spreading of sample paths imply increase in variance?

Consider a sample-continuous stochastic process $\left\{ X_t \right\}_{t \in T}$ s.t. each $X_t$ is real-valued and $$\int_\Omega | X_t(\omega) | ^p \, \mathrm{d} P(\omega)< \infty$$ for all $1 ...
1
vote
1answer
82 views

Projective family of probability spaces

This is a crosspost of this question from MSE. I'm confused about the definition of a projective family of probability spaces $(S_t,\mathscr S _t,\mu_t,f_{ts})_{s,t\in T}$. The conditions ...
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0answers
73 views

Converse for Levy's continuity theorem

Levy's continuity theorem states that, for a sequence of random variables $\{X_n\}$ with characteristic functions $\{\varphi_n(t)\}$ and a random variable $X$ with a characteristic function ...
4
votes
1answer
83 views

Rate of convergence of Bayesian posterior

Suppose a data generating process (DGP) is parameterized by some unknown parameter $\theta_0$, say $P_{\theta_0}$, and we want to estimate the value of $\theta_0$ using Bayesian method. Let ...
4
votes
2answers
92 views

Finding joint probability from double marginals

Consider three probability distributions in the form $p_1(y,z),p_2(x,z),p_3(x,y)$. When does a global joint probability $p(x,y,z)$ (possibly not unique) exist? The first compatibility condition to ...
4
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0answers
51 views

Concentration of measure for uniform distribution on Stiefel manifolds

This is my first post on MO, so I hope the question is suitable. I am looking at the uniform distribution on the Stiefel manifold, but more specifically, at the uniform distribution on the ...
4
votes
1answer
181 views

Average probability that a random cosine polynomial with bernoulli coefficients is small

Let $P_{n}(t)=\sum_{k=0}^{n}\varepsilon_{k}\cos(kt)$ where $\varepsilon_{i}$ are independent random variables taking values in $\left\{-1,1\right\}$ with equal probability. Is is true that for any ...
4
votes
2answers
159 views

Probable direction of deviations from the expected value in binomial and hypergeometric cases

Suppose I have an urn with N marbles, with frequencies p and q for red and black marbles, and with p > 0,5. I take a sample of r marbles. It sounds intuitive to say that deviations from the mean ...
4
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0answers
58 views

Is there a generalization of Polya urns to continuous outcome event?

Take for example the simplest model where there are n blue balls and m white balls in an urn. Then, in a first step realization, a white one has been drawn and then c + 1 of this colour had been put ...
0
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0answers
71 views

absolutely continuous of two probability measures

Suppose $X_t$ satisfies $$X_t=\int_0^t b(X_s)ds+ L_t,\quad t\in[0,1]$$ where $L_t, t\in[0,1]$ is a $\alpha-$stable process. Let $P_L$ be the law of $L$, $P_X$ be the law of $X$. ($P_L, P_X$ are ...
1
vote
1answer
83 views

A differential inequality and a special value

Let $G \colon [0,1] \to [0,1]$ be a monotonically decreasing function with $G(0) = 1$ and $G(1) = 0$. Suppose that $G$ is differentiable infinitely many times, and that: $$G(x)G''(X) \leq ...
5
votes
1answer
112 views

Sufficient conditions for establishing a total order on a family of probability distributions?

Let $\mathcal{X}$ be some set of independent random variables. Define the ordering on $\mathcal{X}$ by $X_i \prec X_j$ if and only if $\mathcal{P}\left\{X_i \le X_j\right\} \ge \frac{1}{2}$. Are there ...
1
vote
1answer
182 views

Computing probability that $Ax\geq0$ where $x$ is a vector of iid gaussians and $A$ is matrix of $1$s and $0$s

This question came up in my research: What is the probability that $Ax\geq0$ where $x$ is a vector of iid gaussians and $A$ is matrix of $1$s and $0$s? So far I only figured out that I can do Monte ...
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2answers
95 views

Expectation of Gaussian random vector & arbitrary function thereof?

I saw in a paper (https://www.princeton.edu/~wbialek/rome/refs/bialek+ruyter_05.pdf Eq.37) the following identity: where the <.> operator refers to a population average. No source or ...
3
votes
1answer
97 views

Proof for additivity of cumulants

If one does not define cumulants via the cumulant generating function (cgf), e.g. because the cgf does not exist, then an alternative way is to use the recusion \begin{align*} ...
1
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0answers
52 views

Subclass of semimartingales for which all characteristics can be estimated?

I'm going to ask the question for Ito semimartingales rather than semimartingales in general, but more general answers would be great. An Ito semimartingale is a martingale for which the ...
2
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1answer
136 views

How to choose a random proper coloring

I am studying proper colorings of complete bipartite graphs and I'd like to be able to pick a random proper coloring and the compute some things about it. Recall that a proper coloring of a complete ...
5
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0answers
71 views

Real Zeros - tail estimate

Given a random polynomial with Gaussian coefficients, the Kac-Rice formula tells us what the expected number of real zeros is (for more on this, see the excellent paper of Edelman and Kostlan in the ...
11
votes
2answers
393 views

Maximum occupancy balls in bins with limited independence

Throw $n$ balls into $n$ bins and let $X_n$ be the maximum occupancy. That is the maximum number of balls found in any bin. If you throw the balls uniformly and independently it is known that ...
3
votes
2answers
100 views

Anti-concentration for sums of geometric random variables

Consider the random variable $Y = Y_1 + \dots + Y_k$, where each $Y_i$ is iid distributed as a geometric random variable with sucess probability $p$; here we should think of $p$ as being close to ...
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vote
2answers
167 views

Variance of truncated normal distribution

Let $ X \sim \mathcal{N} ( \mu, \sigma^2 ) $, $ - \infty \leqslant a < b \leqslant +\infty $ ($ a, b \ne \infty $ simultaneously) and $ Y $ has a truncated normal distribution on $ (a, b )$, i.e. ...
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2answers
200 views

Existence of strong solution to SDEs with non-Lipschitzian drift

Consider the SDE: $$dX_t=b(X_t)dt+dW_t\quad X_0=x$$ If $b$ is bounded Borel function, using Zvonkin's Transform, one can prove there exists a unique strong solution. I want to know if we assume $b$ ...
3
votes
1answer
123 views

Determining the Fourier transform

Let $d>2$. Let $M$ be a 2-dimensional submanifold of $\mathbb{R}^d$. For instance (and this is the type of example I primarily care about) we could have $M$ being the set of scalar multiples of a ...
2
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0answers
34 views

Bounds on moving average process

Let $X_1,X_2,\dotsc$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables and define the average process $\{Y_t\}$ as $$ Y_t = \sum_{i=1}^p a_k X_{t-i} $$ with some constants $a_1,\cdots,a_p \in \mathbb{R}$. This ...
3
votes
1answer
55 views

Relatively compact sets in Ky Fan metric space

Let $(\Omega,P,\mathcal{F})$ be a probability space. $X$, $Y$ are two random variables. The Ky Fan metric defined as: $d_F(X,Y)=\inf\{\epsilon: P(|X-Y|> \epsilon)<\epsilon\}$ (or $d'_F(X,Y)=E ...
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0answers
80 views

Estimating the number of colors in a bucket

This question was previously posted to Math Stack Exchange here. Suppose we have a bucket containing a large (but known) number of balls. Each of the balls has a color. We don't know how many ...
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0answers
66 views

Is Wiener's Tauberian theorem true in Wiener space?

Let $\gamma$ be the standard product Gaussian measure in $\mathbb{R}^\infty$, and let $\mu$ be a finite variation measure, not necessarily positive, such that $\mu \ll \gamma$. Is the following true? ...
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0answers
93 views

Topological properties of space of Radon measures

Let $M$ denote the space of signed unbounded Radon measures on $\mathbb{R}$ as is defined by Bourbaki, i.e. $M$ is the dual of $C_c$ where $C_c$ is the space of continuous functions on $\mathbb{R}$ ...
2
votes
2answers
136 views

Is this a sufficient condition for joint normal distribution?

Suppose I have a random vector $\boldsymbol{Z}$, if I can prove that for $\forall \boldsymbol{\lambda} \neq \boldsymbol{0}$ where $\boldsymbol{\lambda}$ is a fixed vector, not a random vector, ...
12
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1answer
312 views

Smallest $k$ so that $k$-wise independence guarantees a constant expected minimum

Imagine you sample $n$ numbers with replacement uniformly from the integers $1,\dots, n$ (we can assume $n$ is large). Let $X$ be the minimum of these samples. I am interested in $\mathbb{E}(X)$ but ...
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0answers
26 views

Bound on the total variation distance for multiple samples $d_{tv}(P^n,Q^n)$

Given two discrete distributions $P$ and $Q$, with computable total variation distance $d_{TV}(P,Q)=||P - Q||_1$, is there a precise bound for $d_{TV}(P^n,Q^n)=||P^n - Q^n||_1$, as need to estimate ...
2
votes
1answer
66 views

Berry-Esseen bound in 2 dimensions for linear combinations

Let us say have a sequence of $n$ 2-$D$ random variables $X_i=(\varepsilon_i/\sqrt{n},i\varepsilon_{i}\sqrt{6}/n^{3/2})$, where $\varepsilon_{i}$ are independent random variables such that ...
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0answers
32 views

Tail inequality for orthomartingales/martingale difference random fields

It is known that if $(S_i= \sum_{j \leqslant i }X_i, \mathcal F_i)$ is a martingale, then for each $ \beta>1$, $\delta\in (0,\beta-1)$ and $\lambda>0$, and each integer $N \geqslant 1$, the ...
10
votes
2answers
285 views

Minimal expected absolute value of linear combinations of Gaussian random variables

I am interested in the following question. Consider $n$ independent standard normal random variables $g_i$. Cosider a linear combination $w_1g_1+\cdots+w_ng_n$. Can one give a "decent" upper bound for ...
0
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2answers
210 views

Generalized expression for balls and bins problem

$n$ number of balls are thrown randomly to $m$ number of bins, standing in a row. The balls are labeled as $1,2,3,....n$ and bins are also labeled as $1,2,3,...,m$. The probability of $i_{th}$ ball ...
4
votes
1answer
83 views

Monotonicity of a ratio of conditional expectation operator

Let a pair of random variables $(X, Y)$ over a finite product space $\mathcal{X}\times \mathcal{Y}$ be given. The conditional expectation operator is defined as $$(T_Yf) (y):=\mathbb{E}[f(X)|Y=y],$$ ...
9
votes
2answers
319 views

Expected centered entropy of the binomial distribution

In short, the function I am interested in is the following: $$I_n(p) = \sum_{k=0}^n \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \left[h(p) - h\left(\tfrac{k}{n}\right)\right],$$ where $h(x) \triangleq -x \log x - ...
4
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0answers
92 views

power laws emerging from the sandpile model

Is there a rigorous proof that the abelian sandpile model generates a power law distribution of avalanche lengths?