Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

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139 views

Probability of the maximum of a throw of an infinite number of $n$-sided dice being $k$

Let $X$ be the random variable obtained as the maximum of a throw of $m$ dice (each of which is $n$-sided). In other words, $X = \max\{l_1,\cdots, l_m\}$ where $l_i$ can take any value between $1$ and ...
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0answers
13 views

Dirichlet distribution: Normalization of alpha values [migrated]

I'm a programmer and currently trying to apply the Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm by Blei et al. on a text mining problem. I am using a library called gensim for this, which takes, among ...
2
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0answers
53 views

A 1-D random variable from a random distribution

I have a random variable $X$ that is drawn from the pdf $$ f(x; \mu, \sigma, \sigma_{\mu}, \sigma_{\sigma}) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \frac{1}{|\hat{\sigma}|\sqrt{2\pi }} ...
10
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2answers
386 views

Parity of $\lfloor 1/(x y) \rfloor$ not equally distributed

A curious puzzle for which I would appreciate an explanation. For $x$ and $y$ both uniformly and independently distributed in $[0,1]$, the value of $\lfloor 1/(x y) \rfloor$ has a bias toward odd ...
9
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1answer
240 views

Guessing the larger integer: A game-theoretic twist

The starting point for this question is the old chestnut, already discussed on MO, about a game show on which the host has chosen two distinct integers and the contestant gets to reveal one of them at ...
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2answers
86 views

Asymptotics for Hitting the sphere from the Outside

The problem is: consider A a solid ball centered at 0 and the exterior starting point $x\in A^{c}$, what is the behavior of $P_{x}(T_{B_{r}(0)}>t)$ for $d\geq 3$ as $t\to \infty$,where ...
3
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0answers
193 views

Strong Law of Large Numbers for arrays of random variables

Suppose $X_1$, $X_2$ are two independent real-valued random variables. Let $F$ be a continuous (unbounded) function from $\mathbb{R^2}$ to $\mathbb{R}$. Assume that the necessary measurability and ...
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68 views

(Reference) Asymptotics of hitting probability by Brownian motion

The problem is: Given compact set A with positive finite volume (eg. ball,cube), what happens to $P_{x}(T_{A}>t)$ as $t\to \infty$, where $T_{A}=inf_{t>0}(B_{t}\in A)$ and x is in the "exterior" ...
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15 views

Population Variance PDF given Sample Variance [on hold]

I require the pdf of the population variance (v2) conditioned on the sample variance (s2). I know that (n-1)s2/p2 follows a chi-squared distribution but can it be applied in the other direction? ...
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0answers
19 views

Perturbing moments of multivariable distributions

Let $P$ be a multivariate probability distribution on $\mathbb R^n$ which is moment-determinate and let $\{m_k : k \in \mathbb N_0^n\}$ be the sequence of moments $P$. Fix an order $p$ and consider ...
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71 views

Poisson approximation of random sub-graphs

I add the edges of $G(n)$ the complete graph on $n$ vertices one by one, at random and without replacement, and denote by $G(n,m)$ the resulting Erdos Renyi random graph process. At step $m$ in the ...
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43 views

Statistics, probability [closed]

A statistician-gone-mad has concocted the following multi-part experiment. For the first part of the experiment, a fair, seven sided die is rolled and the upper-most facing number is noted. If the ...
3
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110 views

Total variation and Hellinger distance inequality between truncated Gaussians

We know that the total variation distance, $d_{TV}(P,Q) = \frac{1}{2}\left|\left|P-Q\right|\right|_1$, between any two distributions $P$ and $Q$ is lower bounded by their squared Hellinger distance, ...
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66 views

hitting time of the first quadrant for a 2-d random walk

Suppose $(S_n)_{n=1}^{\infty}$ is a simple random walk in $\mathbb{R}^2$. Let $\tau_{(a,b)}$ be the hitting of the first quadrant when $S_0 = (a,b)$. Is there a way to compute or estimate the ...
0
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1answer
80 views

Sum of n independent F distribution random variables [closed]

I need a help: What will be the distribution of sum of $n$ independent F distributed random variables with parameters 1 and 1 (i.e., $F(x;1,1)$? Formally, say $x_1,\ldots,x_n$ are i.i.d. as F(1,1), ...
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30 views

Stability of simple conditions on functions under convolution and/or mixture

We consider families of smooth probability densities defined on $\mathbb{R}^+$, $p=(x\in \mathbb{R}^+ \mapsto p_n(x))_{n\in\mathbb{N}}=(p_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ satisfying (i) $\int_{\mathbb{R}^+} ...
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344 views

What is the minimal $C_k$, such that every $f\colon \{-1,1\}^n\to \mathbb{R}$ of degree at most $k$ satisfies $\|f\|_2\le C_k\|f\|_1$

Every $f\colon\{-1,1\}^n\to \mathbb{R}$ can be repsenented as a multilinean polynomial of the form $$f(x_1,x_2,\ldots ,x_n)=\sum _{S\subseteq [n]} \hat{f}(S)\prod_{i\in S} x_i $$ The degree of the ...
3
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1answer
334 views

Publishing an elementary proof of a less-general and less-useful version of a classic result?

Background Let $X_t$ be the continuous time Markov process on the state space {Working, Broken}. Let $U$ be the cumulative sojourn Working during an interval $[0,\tau]$ (the process's uptime). It is ...
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36 views

Numerical Methods for stochastic PDE, from rough paths to backward equations

this question is about some literary references regarding the state of the art in terms of numerical methods for SPDE's. In particular, Have the numerical implications, if any, of the results in ...
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55 views

Why we mistaken coin toss to be an example of classical probability? [migrated]

It is now well known that a random coin toss has 1/6000 probability of landing on its edge. So the out-dated model that a coin toss always land on either heads or tails with probability 1/2 is wrong. ...
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31 views

Numerical solution of SDEs with colored noise

I am trying to numerically solve an SDE with both white and colored noise that models a non-linear circuit: $$ dX_t = f(X_t) dt + \sigma_w dW + \sigma_c dC $$ where $W$ is a standard Brownian motion ...
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1answer
74 views

Diffusion processes with different diffusion coefficients and absolute continuity

I would first of all like to say that I am an analyst, and so I am familiar with probabilistic methods only on a basic level. My initial situation is the following. Consider two SDEs: \begin{align} ...
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1answer
37 views

Lower bound for median of independent outcomes

Consider a stochastic variable $X$ taking positive real values and the events $P(X\geq a)\leq\frac{1}{3}$ and $P(X \leq b) \leq \frac{1}{2.9}$. We define $X_m$ as the median of $k$ independent ...
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1answer
122 views

Random non-intersecting circles in the plane

If I give a finite region of $\mathbb{R}^{2}$ and place $k$ circles of radius $r(k)$ uniformly at random inside, are there any known results for the probability that the circles do not overlap? ...
4
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1answer
349 views

Why are the angular differences of these random complex polynomial coefficients almost constant?

This is based on მამუკა ჯიბლაძე's (not-)answer here. I guess it is better to make up a new thread for it. Let me repeat the setup here: We consider polynomials whose complex roots are randomly ...
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2answers
82 views

Probability of a contiguous sub-sequence with different elements

Let $a$ and $b$ be two positive integers, and say $b\gg a$. Let $S$ be a random sequence with $ab$ elements, whose entries are all integers from $1$ to $a$, such that each number from $1$ to $a$ ...
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0answers
71 views

Reference: Bochner Integral`

What would be an easily accessible book dealing with Bochner integration as applied to probability theory (I'm looking to understand random elements and their basic related concepts in a formal yet ...
7
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3answers
332 views

Learning roadmap: 'combinatorial' probability

I am about to finish working through Williams's Probability With Martingales. I have studied analysis up to the first five chapters of Folland's text but have not studied any combinatorics yet. It ...
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1answer
47 views

Could somebody recomends a good book or article about numerical methods for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

Could somebody recomend a good book or article about numerical methods for Stochastic Partial Differential Equations. I'm looking for a good introductory material thanks.
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1answer
79 views

Interpretation of riemannian geodesics in probability

Good morning everybody. My question is, as maybe already hinted in the title, rather philosopic. We know that geometric properties of a riemannian manifold can be interpreted in terms of certain ...
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43 views

Is there an efficient algorithm for sampling from the negative hypergeometric distribution? [closed]

I'm writing a small statistics library currently. One of the algorithms I'm implementing has two variants: one that samples the hypergeometric distribution and one that samples the negative ...
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0answers
33 views

Numerical method for self-consistency of one-dimensional probability density function

I have an integral equation for self-consistency of one-dimensional probability density function, like this $$\rho_x(x) = \frac{1}{|a|}\int \int \rho_x\left(\frac{s-b}{a}\right) \rho_P(p) ...
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219 views

Central limit theorem via maximal entropy

Let $\rho(x)$ be a probability density function on $\mathbb{R}$ with prescribed variance $\sigma^2$, so that: $$\int_\mathbb{R} \rho(x)\, dx = 1$$ and $$\int_\mathbb{R} x^2 \rho(x), dx = \sigma^2$$ ...
7
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3answers
312 views

The distribution of the shortest path through $n$ points

In the big picture, I'd like to know: if I sample $n$ points uniformly at random in the unit square, what is the probability that the shortest path that visits each one of them is very small? More ...
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159 views

Is there a connection between |roots| $\rightarrow$ 1 and Gromov's waist theorem?

Recent questions showed that roots of a random polynomial tend to lie on the unit circle ("Why do roots of polynomials tend to have absolute value close to 1?"; "Distribution of roots of complex ...
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1answer
59 views

Proof for power-law tail of Poisson-Dirichlet distribution (Pitman-Yor process & Zipf's law)

I'm trying to understand the motivation of using Pitman-Yor (PY) processes in language modeling, in particular Teh's hierarchical LM based on PY processes. A motivation frequently stated in research ...
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6 views

Uniformly distributed random variable [migrated]

A point is chosen at random on a line of length L. What is the probability that the ratio of the shorter to the longer segment is less than 1/4?
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0answers
152 views

Heuristic probabilistic argument for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture

The Collatz Conjecture is a famous conjecture that has never been proven; nevertheless, there exists a simple heuristic probabilistic argument which supports its truth - in Wikipedia's words, "If one ...
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41 views

Eigenvalue bounds for covariance matrix

If if have a random vector $\mathbf{a}\in \mathbb{R}^n$, and I form the covariance matrix of its elements $C=\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{a}\mathbf{a}^T ]-\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{a}]\mathbb{E}[\mathbf{a}]^T$, can I ...
7
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3answers
234 views

A learning roadmap to the Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE) for the complex analyst

I would like some good references to learn about the Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE), for a complex analyst with no background in probability. A quick google search gave a lot of references on SLE ...
2
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0answers
33 views

Random matrices whose limit gives exact Wigner surmise

Let $M$ come from an ensemble of $N\times N$ matrices. The Wigner surmise is density function $p^W_0(s)=\frac{\pi}{2}se^{-\pi s^2/4}$. From a random matrix point of view, we can write ...
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2answers
254 views

Expected number of non-empty regions

Consider $d$ dimensional space cut by $n$ hyperplanes in general position, each one of which goes through the origin. The number of distinct regions created is known to be: $$2\sum_{i=0}^{d-1} {n -1 ...
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14answers
29k views

Why do roots of polynomials tend to have absolute value close to 1?

While playing around with Mathematica I noticed that most polynomials with real coefficients seem to have most complex zeroes very near the unit circle. For instance, if we plot all the roots of a ...
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1answer
77 views

Expected number of packed items in box

Assume we have a box of size $n$, some items $X_i, i \in N$ of unknown distribution, with expected size $\mu>0$ and variance $\sigma^2$. We want to randomly and greedily pack the box with the items ...
4
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1answer
111 views

Expectation of ratio of functions of i.i.d. Bernoullis: a concentration question

Consider the following $n \times n$ symmetric matrix of i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables, $X_{ij}$. For $i=1,...,n$ and $i<j\le n$. Let $X_{ij} \sim \text{Bernoulli}(p)$ when $i \ne j$ ($p$ ...
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28 views

Bounds on Product of CDF or Beta function

I have functions of the form \begin{align} I_i = \int_0^\infty F_0(x)^aF_1(x)^b(1-F_0(x))^c(1-F_1(x))^ddF_i(x)~~~~i = 0,1 \end{align} $F_0(x)$ and $F_1(x)$ are CDFs corresponding to the random ...
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3answers
237 views

Limiting probabilities for two-player game drawing random uniform numbers

Consider this simple 2-person game I just made up: Player A goes gets to draw a uniform U[0,1] number up to X times. At any time, he may either keep his number, or draw a brand new uniform number. ...
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2answers
105 views

Ising model on lattices with (vertical side length) $\neq$ (horizontal side length)

Consider the Ising model with nearest neighbours interactions on a rectangular lattice $L\times M$. If $L=M$ ($2$-dimensional square lattice), it is known (e.g., by Peierls' argument or Onsager's ...
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1answer
137 views

Closure of random rotations

Are matrix Fisher random variables closed under multiplication? For those unfamiliar with the jargon, let me unpack the terms above and repose my question. This is a question about probability ...
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0answers
37 views

“Bad” lower functions for a Bessel process?

Let $(X_t, t \ge 0)$ be a Bessel($\delta$) process, for some dimension $\delta > 2$, starting, say, from $1$. Let $f: \mathbb{R}_+ \to \mathbb{R}_+$ be an upper semicontinuous function; assume ...