Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

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2
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24 views

Inequality about moments of a random variable and of its conditional expectation

This is a follow-up to a question I asked earlier: Moments of a random variable and of its conditional expectation My claim turned out to be false. Here is a new claim. Let $X$ be a bounded random ...
0
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0answers
21 views

Recursive sequence of binomial random variables

Fix $p>0$ and define a recursive sequence of random variables with $X_1 =1$ and $$X_{k+1} = X_k + \text{Bin}(X_k,p).$$ Thus, $\mathbf E [ X_k ] = (1+p)^k$. I would like a right tail bound. ...
2
votes
1answer
31 views

More precise statement about lower bounds on the cover time of general graphs

Uriel Feige has shown in 1995 in his paper "A Tight Lower Bound on the Cover Time for Random Walks on Graphs", the following result: For any graph $G$ on $n$ vertices, and any starting vertex $u$ ...
-1
votes
0answers
29 views

Stochastic integration with respect to Fractional Brownian Motion

I would like to know what can be said about integral process $X_t = \int_0^t e^{-sr} dB_s^H,t\in[0,\infty)$, where $B^H_t$ is Fractional Brownian Motion with Hurst parameter $H>\frac{1}{2}$, ...
7
votes
2answers
99 views

Moments of a random variable and of its conditional expectation

Let $X$ be a bounded random variable with $\mathbb{E}X=0$. Since $X$ is bounded, all its moments exist. Let $\mathcal{G}$ be any $\sigma$-field and let $Y:=\mathbb{E}[X|\mathcal{G}].$ I am interested ...
0
votes
0answers
57 views

Correlation between two distance measures on bitstrings

I have an infinite collection of $0/1$ random strings of length $n$ (i.e., say 010001110101), where each digit is an independent Bernoulli RV, with parameter $p_i$, $i:1...n$. Define the "trait ...
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0answers
19 views

The effect of a single Markov transition on fidelity

Let $p$ and $q$ be two probability vectors of length $n$. The fidelity (or Bhattacharyya coefficient) of $p$ and $q$, is $$ F(p,q) \ := \ \sum_{i=1}^n \sqrt{p_i \cdot q_i}. $$ Let $A$ be a ...
5
votes
1answer
92 views

Distribution of infinity-norm over the unit sphere

I need to compute probabilities of the form $P( \Vert X \Vert_\infty < r ),$ where $X$ is a random variable of dimension $n$, drawn with a uniform distribution on the unit sphere ...
5
votes
0answers
123 views

Distribution of trivial subset sums

Suppose I have a set $S$ of $n$ integers picked independently, uniformly at random from $[-L, L].$ Let $z(S)$ be the number of subsets of $S$ which sum to zero. The question is: what is the ...
0
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0answers
24 views

Ergodicity property for continuous-time Harris positive Markov process

I have posted this question on there, but got no answer. The following theorem is Theorem 13.3.3 of Meyn and Tweedie's Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability on page 328: Theorem 13.3.3. If ...
6
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3answers
226 views

Probability a random matrix contains a short integer vector in its kernel

Consider a random $m$ by $n$ matrix $M$ with $m \leq n$, chosen uniformly over all those whose elements are in $\{0,1\}$ (or $\{-1,1\}$ if it is any easier). Is there any mathematical theory that ...
-2
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1answer
30 views

generate analytically bivariate correlated data [on hold]

How does one generate correlated binomial data when one is given marginal probabilities of each and also the correlation coefficient. The following code in SAS for example works best when we want ...
2
votes
1answer
63 views

Convergence of weighted double sum of random variables

I'm looking for convergence results of particular weighted sum: $$S_n=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\sum_{j=1}^{n}a_{i,j}X_i X_j.$$ when random variables $X_i$ ar i.i.d. Are there any investigation ...
3
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0answers
58 views

Kullback Leibler “variance”: does that divergence have a name?

If you consider two probability distributions $p$ and $q$, one way to measure the distance between the two is the Kullback-Leibler divergence: $$KL(p,q)=\int p \log (p/q) = E_p(\log p/q)$$ and this ...
-3
votes
0answers
84 views

Find the joint density function? [closed]

Assume that $X_t$ is the OU process , i.e, $dX_t=\kappa(\theta-X_t)dt +\sigma dW_t$ where $0\leq t\leq T$ and $X_0=x_0>0$. Let $q(x)=\frac{\kappa}{\sigma}(\theta-x)x +\frac{\sigma}{2}$. I want ...
-2
votes
0answers
26 views

Branching process and process stochastic [closed]

Consider a discrete time branching process $X_{n}$ with $X_{0}=1.$ Establish the simple inequality $$P\{X_{n}>L\ \textrm{for some}\ 0\leq n\leq m\ |\ X_{m}=0 \}\leq [P\{X_{m}=0\}]^L$$ Note: This ...
1
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0answers
45 views

Spectral densities of stationary Feller processes with no diffusion, constant positive drift and negative jumps

For a (real valued, finite variance, centered) stationary process $X_t$ on $\mathbb R$, the auto-correlation function $k(\tau) = \mathbb E(X_{t+\tau}-X_t)^2$ and its inverse Fourier transform $\rho$, ...
11
votes
1answer
333 views

Probability that random nonnegative integer matrix is singular

Q. What is the probability that an $n \times n$ matrix, whose elements are independent uniformly random integers in $\{0,1,\ldots,k\}$, is singular? For example, for $n=3$ and $k=2$, the first ...
3
votes
2answers
167 views

Discretizing probability measures

Consider a probability distribution on $\mathbb{R}^k$, say $\mu$. Then there is a sequence of probability measures $\mu_n$ that converge weakly to $\mu$ so that each of them is discrete (takes ...
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0answers
63 views

Random Cluster Model only for bond percolation?

Can someone please tell me which of the following statements I make are true of the current state of the art: The Random Cluster Model is a generalization of bond percolation (with possibly ...
4
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0answers
128 views

inequality in a shape of inclusion exclusion formula

I have two inequalities to show, both of which describe some probabilities. First I know how to handle, and it follows from applying arithmetic-harmonic mean inequality: consider 9 numbers ...
4
votes
1answer
185 views

continuity of the Boltzmann entropy in the Wasserstein metric

For Lebesgue-absolutely continuous probability measures $\rho\ll \mathcal{L}^d$ in the whole space $\mathbb{R}^d$ with finite second moments (i-e $\rho\in \mathcal{P}^2_{ac}(\mathbb{R}^d)$), let $$ ...
0
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0answers
14 views

Bayes' Rule where the probabilities are taken as conditional [migrated]

I'm encountering some difficulty beginning statistics work with a basic Bayes' Rule problem. You can see the problem and answer on page 16 here, but I've explained it below. ...
3
votes
1answer
108 views

Stationary distribution of last passage percolation

Consider last passage percolation model on $\mathbb{Z}^2$. I am interested to know if there is any known result for the stationary distribution of passage times, given some distribution for the ...
6
votes
1answer
164 views

Length of nearest neighbor path in travel salesman problem

Given $n$ nodes uniformly distributed in $[0,1]^2$, consider the nearest neighbor algorithm to solve traveling salesman problem, i.e., each time I select the nearest neighbor not visited so far as the ...
13
votes
2answers
373 views

A probability distribution in n dimensional space which its projection on any line is a uniform distribution?

Does there exist, for any natural $n$, a probability distribution in $\mathbb{R}^n$ whose projection on any line is a uniform distribution?
0
votes
1answer
68 views

Approximation of general measurable maps by simple functions [closed]

Let $f : (\Omega, \mathcal F) \to (\mathbb R, \mathcal B(\mathbb R)$ be a measurable map, then it is well-known that $f$ could be approximated by a sequence $(f_n)$ of simple measurable functions, ...
2
votes
1answer
59 views

Sub-$\sigma$-algebras and conditional expectation

Is it true that any sub-$\sigma$-algebra of a Rokhlin-Lebesgue space is induced (up to completion) by a measurable map into another Rokhlin-Lebesgue space? In other words, is it true that conditional ...
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0answers
19 views

Lower bound on the probability of guessing the mode in a small multinomial sample

Let $X=\left(X_{1},...,X_{k}\right)$ be a random variable that follows a multinomial distribution with $n$ trials and $k$ categories, with probabilities $p_{1},...,p_{k}$ such that $p_{1}-\delta\geq ...
2
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1answer
86 views

Bounds on the probability of k-of-n events in terms of bounds on single and pairwise probabilities

Let $A_1,\dotsc,A_n$ be events in a probability space, and let $N = \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{1}_{A_i}$ be the random number of events that occur. For a fixed value $k \in \{1,\dotsc,n\}$, what can be ...
0
votes
1answer
58 views

Ergodic and mixing processes [closed]

I am working with an article, where it says: "that the discrete time stationary sequence $\{Y_j\}_{j\in Z}$ is mixing and hence ergodic." where $Y_t$ is defined as $Y_t = \int_{-\infty}^{t} ...
0
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0answers
72 views

Why is this distribution exponential?

Take the interval $[0, 1]$. Now sample 10000 points in this interval randomly according to the uniform distribution. The fact is that the distribution of the distances between adjacent points on ...
2
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0answers
52 views

Stationary distribution for time-inhomogeneous Markov process

I have a two state, discrete time, time-inhomogeneous Markov process with transition matrix defined by $$T_i=\begin{pmatrix} 1-p_i\alpha & p_i\alpha \\ p_i\beta& 1-p_i\beta \end{pmatrix}$$ ...
0
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0answers
47 views

Facebook Question (Data Science) [migrated]

Out of curiosity, here's a question from Glassdoor (Facebook Data Science Interview) You're about to get on a plane to Seattle. You want to know if you should bring an umbrella. You call 3 ...
2
votes
1answer
126 views

Expected value (probability) maximization with binomial distribution

I need to solve an optimization problem that involves an expected value like $$F(n,x) = \sum_{k=0}^n \binom{n}{k} p^k(1 - p)^{n - k} f(k,x).$$ Here $f(k,x)$ is actually a probability coming from a ...
2
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0answers
85 views

Tail bounds for suprema of random processes

Classical results concerning concentration of Gaussian random variables due to Cirelson, Ibragimov and Sudakov say that if $V_1,\cdots,V_n$ are jointly Gaussian with variance bounded by $1$, then ...
10
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0answers
235 views

Reference request: a combinatoric result [closed]

When I tried to construct a counterexample in my research, I encountered the following result, which should be true. Let $m=m(n)$ be a function that grows faster than $\sqrt n$, so $m(n) = ...
1
vote
1answer
125 views

Proof of no bound for stochastic integral

I have Ito integral $X=\int_0^T f(t) dW(t)$ and I would like to proof that $P(X>K)>0$ for all $K$ provided $f(t) > \epsilon > 0$. My idea was $\int_0^T f(t) dW(t) \sim \int_0^T \epsilon ...
2
votes
1answer
91 views

Probability of Hamming weight

Given $s,t\in(0,1)$, $c>1$, $n\in\Bbb N$, pick ${n^t}$ random vectors $\{v_i\}_{i=1}^{{n^t}}$ such that each $v_i\in\{x\in\{0,1\}^{2^n}:|x|_{hamming}={2^{n-n^s}}\}$. Denote $v_j\cap v_j$ to be ...
7
votes
7answers
556 views

Semicircle law universality elsewhere

Wigner's semicircle distribution is: $$f(x)=\frac{1}{2 \pi}\sqrt{4-x^2}, \ \ -2\leq x\leq 2.$$ Under reasonable conditions, the rescaled eigenvalue density of random symmetric matrices $M_n$ follows ...
5
votes
1answer
250 views

Sums of random variables mod p

Let $\varepsilon_1, \ldots, \varepsilon_n$ be independent random variables taking values $0,1$ each with probability $1/2$. It is well known that $R_n=\varepsilon_1+ \cdots+ \varepsilon_n$ modulo a ...
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88 views

Central Limit theorem: Taylor series diverges for harmonics with higher number and those harmonics can't be neglected [migrated]

Edit: I'm currently revising the question, due to suggestions in comments. There's a mistake in my discussion of Parseval's identity. I've read several proofs of Central Limit Theorem and they all ...
0
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1answer
66 views

Asymptotically full stationary process

Let $(X_n)_{n \in \mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary process on a finite set $A$. Say that it is asymptotically full if for every increasing sequence of subsets $B_n \subset A^n$ such that ...
2
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2answers
127 views

Are all mixtures of these unimodal functions unimodal?

Let us say that a function $F\colon(0,\infty)\to\mathbb{R}$ is increasing-decreasing if, for some $c\in[0,\infty]$, $F$ is non-decreasing on $(0,c]$ and non-increasing on $[c,\infty)$. Is it true that ...
2
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0answers
23 views

MLE and CRLB with mismatched likelihoods

Suppose that I can do a Karhunen-Loeve expansion of a log-likelihood function $p(\bf{x};\theta)$ into N terms and that these accounts for a fraction $1-\delta$ of the total energy. Now consider ...
0
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0answers
16 views

A simple question on conditional expectation [migrated]

Let $x$ and $y$ two i.i.d having an uniform distribution over $[0,1]$. Then what is the conditional expectation, $\mathbb{E}[x / y\ |\ x < y]$. It seems to me, this should be: $\int_{\{x < ...
5
votes
1answer
91 views

Is it possible to prove concentration bounds from optional stopping theorem?

It is known that the optional stopping theorem from martingale theory is a very powerful theorem in probability theory in statistics. I have heard of a probability course at Stanford where ...
3
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0answers
50 views

Dilation of positive operators into martingales

In Rota's paper (An Alternierende Verfahren for General Positive Operators), Theorem 2 says that: Let $P$ be a doubly stochastic operator which is selfadjoint in $L^2 (S, \Sigma, \mu)$. Then there is ...
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0answers
58 views

How often does a one-dimensional lazy random walk end at the origin? [migrated]

This seems like it's probably a solved problem, but I don't seem to be googling the right keywords. I want to know the probability that a lazy random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ ends where it started. To be ...
3
votes
1answer
104 views

Do random triangulation edge-flips maintain randomness?

Let $S$ be a fixed set of $n$ points in the plane in general position. Let $T$ be a triangulation of $S$, (somehow) selected uniformly at random from all triangulations of $S$. (There are an ...