# Reference for Rank Distribution Conjecture.

I am currently writing my master's thesis and I was wondering if the rank distribution conjecture was ever formally written down. Recall that it says that:

Half of all elliptic curves have rank $0$, half have rank $1$, and the rest have rank $\geq 2$.

I am looking for a reference for where the conjecture was made. Right now all I have for a reference is the linked talk and I'm not very comfortable with using that.

Thanks.

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Did you write to the person who wrote the slides at your link, or the person to whom he attributes the conjecture? – KConrad May 25 '12 at 0:02
In the Bhargava–Shankar article (arxiv.org/abs/1006.1002), they say it "originates" in the work of Goldfeld and Katz–Sarnak and provide a reference for each. – Rob Harron May 25 '12 at 1:44
Perfect! Thank you! – Eugene May 25 '12 at 3:40
Do you want to include your comment as an answer so I can close up this question? – Eugene May 25 '12 at 3:42