Olivier and all,
If you trust your own minds, you should better try directly and read version 2 of the proof for only CM fields, which I posted in June this years. The rest is hot wind - people may bet, in front of the list of names who failed at Leopoldt you may put the odds for my breakthrough around 1% - but it is only reading which can provide your own judgment of whether this 1 has to be more likely than the complementary 99. I teach the proof in class since 3 weeks and it works quite fluidly and the students can grab the construction very well - useless to say, it is enriched by many details, since it is a 3-d year course (guess something like first graduate year). I gave up the construction of techniques for non CM fields, the Iwasawa skew symmetric pairing, and reduced to the skeletton of the principal ideas, exactly in order to respond to the loud whispers about my expressivity.
As for the Cambridge seminar mentioned, it was a great experience - but it happened during a week loaded with important other seminars, and in spite of the particular attention offered, we did not have more than 3 or 4 meetings of two hours, this was certainly not enough for completing a proof with all the details, just the time for gathering some important questions and find out on what particular issue people would like to know more. This is taken into account in the present version.
It is also true that Minhyong Kim, this friendly and enthusiastic fellow, asked for my allowance to put the draft on the blog, exactly in the expectation that more students and young researchers would just try and bite at it, and raise questions, which were very welcome. The expected impact did not happen. Therefore I friendly invite you to simply read. Anyone having concrete questions is gladly invited to write me a mail, if I understand the question his chances are one in a thousand that I will not respond.
Sorry if I intruded your discussion