I can't quite figure this problem yet. There is an ant at one vertex of a cube. The ant goes from one vertex to another by choosing one of the neighboring vertices uniformly at random. What is the average minimum time it takes to visit all vertices?
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An additional reference: Chapter 12 in Problems and Snapshots from the World of Probability by Blom, Holst, and Sandell is devoted to an elementary exposition of such cover problems. A related problem: The solution to Problem 6556 in the American Mathematical Monthly (Vol. 96, No. 9, Nov. 1989, pages 847-849) looks at the average number of steps for a random walk to visit all the edges on the cube in dimensions $d=2$, $3$, and $4$. For $d=2$ the answer is easily computed to be 10. For $d=3$ a system with 387 equations in 387 unknowns is solved to give an answer of about 48.5. For $d=4$ the problem is declared hopeless. |
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More generally, you could ask this for any irreducible Markov chain and any starting state. For each nonempty set S of vertices not containing the starting state $s_0$, let $T_S$ be the time (in steps) it takes to reach S (i.e. if $X_t$ is the state after $t$ steps, the least $t$ such that $X_t \in S$). Then the expected time to visit all states is $\sum_S (-1)^{|S|-1} E[T_S]$. Each $E[T_S]$ is straightforward to calculate: if $P$ is the transition matrix, $P_{S^c}$ the submatrix for rows and columns not in $S$, and $I_{S^c}$ the corresponding submatrix of the identity matrix, $E[T_S] = \sum_{j \in S^c} ((I_{S^c} - P_{S^c})^{-1})_{s_0,j}$. For your problem I get a final answer of 1996/95 = 21.01052632. |
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Up to symmetry, there are very few ordered pairs (connected set of visited vertices, position of ant). We give each one a variable corresponding to the expected time from this ordered pair to the final state: $A = B+1$ $B = (B + 2C_{1,1})/3 + 1$ $C_{1,1} = (C_{1,2} + D_1 + D_{2,1})/3 + 1, C_{1,2} = (2C_{1,1} + D_{3,1})/3 + 1$ $D_1 = (2D_1 + E_{1,1})/3 + 1$ $D_{2,1} = (D_{2,2} + E_{1,3} + E_{2,1})/3 + 1, D_{2,2} = (D_{2,1} + D_{2,2} + E_{1,3})/3 + 1$ $D_{3,1} = (D_{3,2} + 2E_{1,4})/3 + 1, D_{3,2} = D_{3,1} + 1$ $E_{1,1} = (E_{1,2} + 2F_{1,1})/3 + 1, E_{1,2} = (E_{1,1} + 2E_{1,3})/3 + 1$, $E_{1,3} = (E_{1,2} + E_{1,4} + F_{1,1})/3 + 1, E_{1,4} = (2E_{1,3} + F_{2,1})/3 + 1$ $E_{2,1} = (E_{2,2} + F_{1,2} + F_3)/3 + 1, E_{2,2} = (E_{2,1} + E_{2,3} + F_{2,3})/3 + 1, E_{2,3} = (2E_{2,2} + F_{1,2})/3 + 1$ $F_{1,1} = (F_{1,1} + F_{1,2} + G_{1,1})/3 + 1, F_{1,2} = (2F_{1,1} + F_{1,2})/3 + 1$ $F_{2,1} = (F_{2,2} + 2G_{1,2})/3 + 1, F_{2,2} = (F_{2,1} + 2F_{2,3})/3 + 1, F_{2,3} = (2F_{2,2} + G_{1,2})/3 + 1$ $F_3 = (2F_3 + G_{1,3})/3 + 1$ $G_{1,1} = (H + 2G_{1,2})/3 + 1, G_{1,2} = (2G_{1,1} + G_{1,3})/3 + 1, G_{1,3} = G_{1,2} + 1$ $H = 0$ Now we solve for $A$: $H = 0$ $G_{1,1} = 7, G_{2,1} = 9, G_{1,3} = 10$ $F_{1,1} = 23/2, F_{1,2} = 13$ $F_{2,1} = 23/2, F_{2,2} = 27/2, F_{2,3} = 13$ $F_3 = 13$ $E_{1,1} = 527/38, E_{1,2} = 593/38, E_{1,3} = 569/38, E_{1,4} = 563/38$ $E_{2,1} = 89/6, E_{2,2} = 31/2, E_{2,3} = 47/3$ $D_1 = 641/38$ $D_{2,1} = 9529/570, D_{2,2} = 9887/570$ $D_{3,1} = 639/38, D_{3,2} = 677/38$ $C_{1,1} = 3517/190, C_{1,2} = 10799/570$ $B = 1901/95$ $A = 1996/95 \approx 21.010526316$ Corollary: I have too much spare time. |
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Yet another reference: Some sample path properties of a random walk on the cube, by Peter Matthews (1989). This covers the asymptotic distribution of the time $T$ taken to visit all vertices, the distribution of the number of vertices not visited at times near to $\mathbb{E}[T]$, and the expected time taken for the walk to come within a distance $d$ of all vertices. |
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Can you share your matlab (mathematica, or what you were using) code, for calculation of the expected value using your great formula? I have problems writing the code. |
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Hello, I have managed to programe a code for your formula. But is this even computable for chains, with more states. Already 30 states, are a problem, if we wish to calculate the expected time to visit al states, starting at state 1. |
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