This question arises from my discussion with a Master student. It concerns with the following situation: let $\phi: R \to S$ be a homomorphism between Noetherian commutative rings. Suppose the $R$-module structure of $S$ has a presentation matrix with all entries in the Jacobson radical of $R$ (so $S$, as $R$-module, is the cokernel of such matrix). Let $M$ be a finitely generated, projective $R$-module.

Question: If $M \otimes_R S$ is $S$-free, must $M$ be $R$-free?

Remark: this is trivially true if $R$ is semi-local. It is easy and well-known if $\phi$ is surjective. Without some conditions on $S$, the assertion is false, for example if we take $S$ to be a residue field of a maximal ideal in $R$ and $M$ be some projective, non-free module.

This kind of statement sounds like it should be in Bourbaki or EGA or the stack project (if it is true!). Does anyone know a proof or counter example?