## Background/Motivation

My interest in this problem traces back to an 11 year old girl who really took to one-way path counting problems. After doing several configurations of streets, she decided to come up with a problem of her own. She presented a $3 \times 3$ gridwork of two-way streets (forming 4 blocks in a $2 \times 2$ arrangement) and added the condition that a street could be traversed at most once. She asked how many such paths are there from upper left to lower right? (Answer: 16.)

Stirred by her enthusiasm, we tried generalizing in various directions. If you have 2 long horizontal streets with $N$ verticals, and let $a_N$ be the number of edge-disjoint paths from upper left to lower right and $b_N$ be the number of edge-disjoint paths from upper left to upper right, then $a_{N+1} = b_{N+1} = a_N + b_N$ for $N > 1$ and $a_1 = b_1 = 1$.

The $3 \times N$ case is trickier, but the number of edge-disjoint paths from upper left to lower right still satisfies a finite linear recurrence relation.

Naturally, I turned to OEIS and found sequences A013991-A013997, where Dan Hoey gives the number of edge-disjoint paths between opposite corners of $K \times N$ grids for $K = 3, 4, 5, ..., 9$ and small $N$. He also provides the first few values for the $N \times N$ cases (sequence A013990). (Note, his numbering counts blocks, not streets.) For $K=3$, he provides a generating function. In a recent communication, he explained the computer algorithm he used to compute the values but indicates that he did not find a recurrence relation for these sequences, so as far as I know, there is no known way to determine the answer to the title question for large $N$.

I've also spoken with Gregg Musiker, Bjorn Poonen, and Tim Chow about this problem. Although none knew how to do the $4 \times N$ case, Gregg simplified my recurrence relations for the $3 \times N$ case, Bjorn suggested many related questions and suggested an asymptotic formula for the $N \times N$ case, and Tim suggested looking at the related literature on self-avoiding walks, such as the book by Neal Madras and Gordon Slade, though it's not clear to me how related edge-disjoint and self-avoiding are with respect to counting them.

Because there are finite linear recurrence relations for the $2 \times N$ and $3 \times N$ cases, it seems natural to also ask:

Is there a finite linear recurrence relation for the number of edge-disjoint paths between opposite corners of a $4 \times N$ gridwork of streets?

Are these problems intractable?