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I am currently teaching an ordinary differential equations course, and am thinking about doing a module on infectious disease models, e.g. SIR/SIRS. I thought, if possible, it would be nice to present a concrete model of the spread of the Zika virus (say in a specific country), but I am having difficulty finding concrete models used, either in some official or unofficial context.

Does anyone know of explicit models used to predict the rate of spread of the Zika virus in some region? (preferably along with some data to compare reported cases with model predictions)

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    $\begingroup$ Would you expect the model to be different for Zika compared with other viruses, or just a couple of parameters? $\endgroup$ Apr 14, 2016 at 18:55
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    $\begingroup$ @DouglasZare My weak understanding is that there are different types of models and the model one should use depends on the disease (e.g., if one can be re-infected or if one can be permanently a carrier), so there's both the choice of a model based on the biology as well as the determination of parameters. $\endgroup$
    – Kimball
    Apr 14, 2016 at 20:09
  • $\begingroup$ If you expect the model is the same as some previously studied viruses, what is the mathematical question? For your class, why not just make up some parameters and say, "Zika might spread like this?" If you expect that past models are inadequate, then coming up with a new model might be a mathematical problem. $\endgroup$ Apr 14, 2016 at 20:34
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    $\begingroup$ This should be similar to models of malaria (another disease carried by mosquitos), which has been extensively studied and can be looked up. Of course in the case of Zika the infected human does not die of the disease. It may be too early to have good numerical values for the parameters of the model. $\endgroup$ Apr 14, 2016 at 20:37
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    $\begingroup$ I'd like to add that I think the responses to the Zika virus have shown shocking levels of innumeracy, with irrelevant data given to justify telling women in entire countries to postpone having children for years (increasing chromosomal abnormalities) or to have abortions. There is a huge difference between saying that most people with a rare, terrible condition were exposed to Zika and saying that many people exposed to Zika will develop that disease, and IF the latter is true there should be data backing that up. I don't see the connection to a class on differential equations, though. $\endgroup$ Apr 14, 2016 at 20:41

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